For an alternative political strategy

By Syed Shahabuddin,

The ever present psychological and political confusion in the Muslim mind tends to increase as the election approaches and reaches a pathological proportion. In any event, it makes incapable of clear thinking and even factual analysis. Election time is the period when long forgotten politicians creep out of their holes and enter the political market place to sell their shops-soiled wares when some new hawkers appear with cheap but shinning wares in their baskets, when new mini-parties are born, though with the same old claim that they have the panacea for the chronic maladies.

But while advertising themselves, they never inform their customers where and how and with whose financial support and political backing the old shops have been renovated and new shops set up. Possibly, most of them if not all may have been sponsored by hostile forces who know that these mini parties cannot win a single seat but they can always divide Muslim votes in more than one constituencies and thus indirectly help them. Election thus accelerate the atomisation of an already divided and segmented Community.

Working among the community is another group of salesman who are paid by national parties to go round the market place, sometimes they use the print and electronic media also, to advise the Muslim electorate to vote for their sponsors who know that the potential buyers are not all old customers, as roughly an additional 10% of the electorate becomes eligible to vote in 5 years.

Lost among such salesman, the community is bound to end up more and more confused, partly also because national politics is itself in a state of confusion. No party not even the big two, the INC and the BJP, can claim, by any objective standards, to be a truly national party in terms of number of states they govern, the percentage of national votes they secured in the last election and the number of constituencies they won. Perhaps, the two parties may end up with lower number of seats in 2009 because there is a Third Front, crafted by the Left and, also the BSP whose leader Mayawati ruling the biggest state with 80 seats is dreaming of becoming the next Prime Minister. In any case, no alliance is likely to reach the magic figure of 272.

The Muslims simply do not matter to any national alliance as they hardly count in the national context. Although they claim nearly 75 seats, they may end up with less than half. But even those shall be largely silent and ineffective in the Parliament.

More than half of the Muslim population lives in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Assam, about 56% of the national Muslim population which may claim nearly 40 seats, out of 190 in these states. The other pocket next in important is the Southern belt of Maharashtra, AP, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu which accounts for nearly 25% of the national Muslim population but where Muslim may claim 18 seats out of 138; the other potential Muslim seats are scattered in J&K and other Hindi-speaking states.

The political situation is so fluid that neither the Congress nor the BJP, nor the CPM can be certain of the loyalty of those parties which have today assembled under their banners. Both Congress and BJP are contesting all seats but they have already lost 2 major states-UP and Bihar. In West Bengal Congress has signed a deal with the TMC; in Assam it faces a stiff competition with the BJP-AGP alliance. The INC has practically no prospect in Gujarat & MP, though in Rajasthan it may win half of the seats. AP which was considered a fortress is going to witness a battle royal between the Congress and the Third Front led by the TDP. In Kerala, the INC-led UDF is pitted against the CPM-led LDF; in Tamil Nadu the Congress-DMK alliance faces a rejuvenated AIDMK associated now with the Third Front. The Third Front is also banking on the eventual support of BJD in Orissa which recently broke ranks with the BJP and even with JD (U) in Bihar whose leader Nitish Kumar has followed a consistent policy of treating its ally BJP as the junior partner and may jump over to the Third Front, if it appears attractive. So may NCP now allied with INC in Maharashtra. In Bihar and UP the Congress by its folly pitted itself against the combination of Lalu, Mulayam and Paswan, which may secure a majority of seats, notwithstanding, the battle with the SP in UP.

Every one of these parties whether in the alliance with the Congress or part of the Third Front has sought Muslim support. For the record, ever the BJP has. But few of them have offered any substantial return. The BSP has fielded 14 Muslims in UP, though not all of them are well known to the community or fielded in winnable seats, Mulayam’s embrace of Kalyan Singh who until recently took credit for the Demolition can cause a serious set back, as the BSP increasingly appears to appeal to the Muslims. As anticipated, the dozens of Muslim mini parties are nowhere in the picture.

Counting the 3 Muslim seats in Kashmir, Muslims may secure about 10 in UP, 5 in Bihar, perhaps 7 in West Bengal, 2 in Assam though the AUDF which is contesting 8 seats out of 14 may spring a surprise by winning more seats. Orissa may this time yield 1 seat, thanks to BJD. In Tamil Nadu, DMK and AIDMK between them may give Muslim 3 seats. In Kerala, the Muslim may this time reach the unprecedented level of 4. In AP, apart from secure seat of Hyderabad, it may get another seat. The worst case is Maharasthra where the INC-NCP combination has offered only 1 seat against the Muslim claim of 5, but the total yield for Muslim may be 2 or 3. There is little chance that the Muslims will even secure 50% of what is due to them, namely 36.

The basic fact is that our present electoral system is not minority-friendly, Muslim may win the 14 odd majority seats but they may not even win high Muslim concentration seats because of both political and social factors. Another social group with lower proportion in the constituency may win against a Muslim candidate, because of organized support in money, material and muscle. There are always more than one secular candidate and there are numerous dummy Muslim candidates.

In any case, Muslim Indians today are deeply disenchanted with politics; their experience of 2004-09 has left a bitter taste in their mouth. They do not know whom to rely on, even which Muslim MP to approach for raising their grievances in the Parliament. During the last 5 years there has been no discussion on any major Muslim problem. There have been very few questions or statements related to Muslim grievances. This is because nearly all Muslim MPs with the exception of Asaduddin Owaisi of MIM and Omar Abdullah of NC have acted more or less like bonded labour of their parties. The Muslim League represented by E.Ahamad was a part of the government and shares blame for the UPA’s indifference, apathy and even misperception. A R Antulay from Maharashtra, the first Minister of Minority Affairs, has proved himself to be politically ineffective; we also had Taslimuddin from RJD in the UPA Govt., who has neither intelligence nor capacity. Also in the government was the old war horse Saifuddin Soz but engaged in managing Kashmir affairs, he totally forget the community.

The thinking in the community is that although it may not be possible for a Muslim-dominant or Muslim-core party to emerge overnight, there is no alternative but to build one in the next 5 years. If a Muslim-dominant party takes shape and strike roots it can be a big force in the era of coalition which is likely to continue for another decade. The other alternative for the community is to concentrate on selected winnable seats and build up and support independent candidates but this is a difficult proposition because in all these constituencies there are vested interests which represent one party or the other. If the community can somehow send at least 5 capable, energetic and eloquent leaders in the Parliament, who shall not be under the thumb of any political party, the government or the opposition, they can successfully raise issues of Muslim concern and draw national and media attention.

But, before the Muslim embark on the course of revival, they have to clear their minds of the accumulated cobwebs. The community has to shift its attention from the Muslim world to the state of Muslims in India. Living in a democracy, it has to take a clear stand against the idea of establishing an Islamic state or reestablishing the Khilafat. They have to purge their minds of the theory that the Hindus in general and the anti-Islamic forces in combination with Israel and USA are always conspiring to do them down. They must no doubt insist on retaining their religious identity but discard the approach that they should be more orthodox than the rest of the Muslim world. They have to give up the notion that the Muslim Indians should have a separate economic or judicial system or even the claim that they are entitled to any special rights or preferential treatment because in the past some kings with Muslim names ruled the country or parts thereof. It may not be universally correct but some nurse the idea of separatism and look upon the Hindus with contempt. Secularism in a majoritarian state is a fragile plant. On one hand, the Muslims want a secular state, on the other; they look upon the Hindu community as enemies or hypocrites, without bothering to answer the question why India is not a Hindu state. Above all, they have to bury their internal differences whether on the basis of sect or baradari, which is the Muslim Indian version of the caste system. No minority in the world can prosper if it divides itself and deliberately widens internal cleavages and thus weaken itself and reduces its weight in the political arena. Above all, the Muslims should learn not to cry or beat their breast in adverse situations while shouting bravely, but plan collectively to overcome it.

The problem is that the masses look up to the Ulema and the elite as well as the intelligentsia, who have knowledge, resources and experience and, above all, contacts but with a few honourable exceptions they look after their personal interests, beg for favours from the power structure and in turn act as their tools, are satisfied with the morsels thrown at them from the tables of power. It is indeed for the Muslim intelligentsia to guide the Muslim masses in determining their political priorities. The masses are capable of reacting emotionally and vigorously but they have never massively demonstrated to defend and promote their own rights, except recently to absolve themselves of false accusations of being involved in acts of terrorism. This was overdone and they do not realise that speeches and slogans against terrorism no longer impact the Hindu mind and they continue to be suspected of supporting terrorists, even against their own mosques and shrines. They continue live in a state of siege and fear and their youth continue to be picked up, detained and tortured to extract false confessions.

The secular state, such as it is under attack by the Hindutva forces to convert it into an open Hindu state. In any case, the Muslims should not presume themselves to be the sole guardians of secularism.

A minority naturally fears political chaos and instability but the minority must also realise that a strong and stable government is not necessarily a just government, the protector of the weak, the oppressed or the marginalized. Under democratic pressure, it often turns into a tool of repression in the hands of the majority. Both regionalisation of national politics and the fragmentation of legislatures which result in unstable combinations in power can be in the interest of the minority.

For the next 5 years, the Muslim Indians must focus on the struggle for recognition as a Backward Class and provision of Reservation, as recommended by the Mishra Commission. The government will continue to be the biggest employer as well as the biggest spender and the only distributor of development resources. If Muslim Indians can find their way through reservation in government employment including the police, the armed forces and the judiciary and secure due access to higher education, their economic, educational and social status will change within 5 years. Today, 84% of the Muslims are identified as poor, extremely poor and vulnerable. Today, they are only 2-3% in government service; they do not realise what they are losing every month in terms of emoluments, nearly 500 lakh crores.

In my 30 years in public life, I have come to the conclusion that the Muslims are toothless tigers. The others think of us as barking dogs which never bite and which can always be silenced by dangling a small morsel. They also look at us as power- seekers and opportunists who, at the end of it all, line up with the oppressors and those in power. We have become spineless and therefore unable to stand up and make sacrifices, intoxicated as we are with the memories of past glories.

To sum up, Muslim Indians are living in a world of delusions, illusions and reveries and they must wake up. Presently, they are susceptible to demagoguery and ignore commercial deals at their cost behind their back. They must realise the stark reality. The Indian state today is a de facto Hindu state. Its democracy is a majoritarian democracy. The majority looks upon the Muslims as the ‘other’ who defy assimilation. Secularism is no more than a political tool to mobilize Muslim support for various Hindu castes and sub-castes, competing with each other for power. Freedom of religion is being used as a cover to Hinduise non-Hindu population. Fredom of expression is often used, with acquiescence of the power structure to vilify Islam. In the political market place the Muslim Indians stand devalued because they can be easily sold and purchased through political brokers; they have reduced themselves to serving the interest of other dominant social groups.

In 60 years they have failed to define their long term interests, goals and objectives, so lost they are in day to day development They no longer have the will to defend their interests, the readiness to make sacrifices for protecting them or attaining their legitimate objectives. And finally, they have no selfless, reliable and capable leadership to engage in honest political dialogue on equal terms with other social groups. They have become habituated to depend on the goodwill of one party or the other. This has sapped their strength. Dependence on favours of the state or of a political party has killed initiative. In public life, the leaders often cross the fence, whenever the pasture on the other side looks greener and they are generally engaged in repaying old debts or to create goodwill in their new home.

Today, the Muslim Indians have no voice in Legislature, even though there are dozen of Muslim legislators. They have no place in the Executive. They do not command understanding of their sensitivities in the Judiciary.

The key to power is the Legislature and the key to effective Muslim presence in the Legislature are independent-minded Muslims who can fearlessly take a stand and draw the attention of the nation and the media to injustice and marginalization.

Muslims are not in a position to change the rules of the game but all parties have their own social constituencies. Joining them or jumping from one to another will not help them as they will always be expected to play second fiddle and promote the interest of the dominant group.

What then is the way out? But to follow the example of other social groups and form a Muslim-dominant or a Muslim-core party to negotiate with other parties on terms of equality to mutual advantage.

Over the last 60 years, while Muslims have always held secularism as sacred in order to contain the forces of Hindu Communalism, trying one party or the other, in the country as a whole or in various states, it appears today that Secularism and Communalism have lost their meaning, with frequent and unrestricted transit of politicians from one camp to the other and the Muslims, as a political entity, have been submerged in the ceaseless flow of politics and lost their standing, as they help one group or the other to attain its objectives, without getting anything in return.

Time has come, therefore, for the Muslim Indians to think seriously of an alternative strategy than merely supporting one party or alliance which wears a mask of secularism and developing over the next 5 years, with the support of non-political Muslim organizations, a Muslim-based party, whose doors are open to all citizens under Muslim leadership and which is vocal on all national concerns. It may develop such strength that other parties shall approach it for understanding or alliance but it must keep its options open. Even if it gains 5 seats in the Parliament, in the era of coalitions, it can play a larger-than-life role in making and unmaking governments and compelling the nation and the media to pay serious attention to the old and new grievances of the community and at least heed its universal demand for Reservation which, in the existing state of communalization of the society and the polity, is the only way to secure political, economic and social justice.