By M. Burhanuddin Qasmi,
AUDF makes its first foray in the 15th Lok Sabha polls and may possibly shake many big players in the state
The 15th Lok Sabha has a total of 543 parliamentary constituencies with the total registered voters numbering 71,42,60,951 nationwide. The northeastern state Assam has a total of 1,74,94,302 voters in 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2009. In Assam Muslims are 31 per cent of 2,66,55,528, the total population, and they are either in majority or are in significant numbers in at least 9 out of total 14 parliamentary constituencies in the state.
There are three major players in the fray this time – the (BJP + AGP) NDA, the Congress and the AUDF. How the AUDF will perform in its first Lok Sabha polls will determine the fate of the other two in the state.
In the 2006 Assembly election in Assam this author has predicted the outcome of the elections and argued that the AUDF will be an emerging regional political outfit which was proven correct in the following three years. This time around, we are presenting this prediction after a critical analysis of almost all local Bengali and Assamese newspapers and with available statistics from 2006 Assembly and 2008 rural elections. I have been in Assam for last one month (11 April -11 May) and observed election pattern in many parliamentary constituencies.
Here is the analysis of each constituency with Eastern Crescent’s predictions.
Karimganj (SC)
2004 Lalit
Mohan Suklabaidya INC 321059 47.81% Won
Parimal
Sukla Baidya BJP 229111 34.12% Lost
Spread across the districts of Hailakandi and Karimganj in the Barak valley, this is a seat where Muslims are in majority. This constituency usually features a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. Bengali speaking Hindu immigrants from Bangladesh vote for BJP. The AGP has a presence in the region but is not effective.
In the past three elections, the Congress has won all the three times, but the margin has gradually been widened.
In the last assembly elections, of the eight constituencies, the BJP won three, the AUDF two and the Congress two, with the last taken by an independent. But what is curious is that the AUDF ended up taking a large part of the Muslim vote, traditional for the Congress, and the Congress was pushed to third place in four constituencies and fourth place in one. If this happens, then the Congress might be in trouble. Even so, it is important to emphasise that the combined NDA vote and the Congress vote were nearly on par, despite the AUDF taking a large bite out of the Congress vote.
The BJP has fielded a local Sudanshu Das against the sitting MP Lalit Mohan Shuklabaidya of the Congress and Advocate Rajesh Mala of the AUDF. The presence of Mala has made the contest wide open. With the Muslim factor looming large, the BJP’s vote share may remain untouched, but the question is whether the tea workers will vote en masse for Mala. If they do, with the AUDF’s Muslim vote, he may emerge a winner. However, Mr. Shuklabaidya is no greenhorn and he has his own strong base.
Prediction: An edge for the AUDF provided the in-fight among AUDF office bearers in Hailakandi district does not affect voters.
Silchar
2004 Sontosh
Mohan Dev INC 246215 40.48% Won
Kabindra
Purkyastha BJP 224895 36.98% Lost
The second seat in the Barak valley which spans the Cachar district. This is another seat where the fight has been directly between the Congress and the BJP in the past. The BJP has won in1998 (Kabindra Purkayastha) and the Congress twice in 1999 and 2004 (Santosh Mohan Dev). Mr. Dev has been representing the constituency for 10 years, so anti-incumbency might work against him. This was before the appearance of the AUDF which has a sizeable support of the Muslims and tea labourers.
The assembly elections were a close affair. Of the seven assembly segments in the constituency, the Congress represents four, the BJP two and the AUDF one. The total NDA vote is about 15,000 less than the total Congress vote, but direct correlations between the assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections don’t work. The AUDF was a factor of considerable significance in some of the seven assembly segments.
The BJP has fielded Kabindra Purkayastha once more against his old rival, Santosh Mohan Dev of the Congress. Dev’s position has been made extremely difficult by the entry of Maulana Badruddin Ajmal of the AUDF into the fray. Ml Badruddin Ajmal is likely to take a big chunk out of the Muslim vote bank of the Congress, and may leave him high and dry. On the other hand, the chances of Ajmal are also bleak if any major consolidation of the tea workers votes with the Muslims never happens, which is unlikely at least this time. Purkayastha is probably the only one whose vote bank is untouched but being an old candidate he has both advantages and some disadvantages.
Prediction: Advantage for BJP. If Congress retains traditional Hindu votes, AUDF can emerge as winner.
Diphu (ST) (Autonomous District)
2004 Biren
Singh Engti INC 125937 31.38% Won
Elwin
Teron ASDC 101808 25.36% Lost
This constituency spans two large districts (Karbi Anglong, and Diphu), where neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much presence. It has been won twice by Dr. Joyanta Rongpi from the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC), and the CPI (ML). In 2004, it was won by the Congress. Of the five assembly segments, the Congress has four, and the ASDC one.
The Congress has fielded sitting MP Biren Engti against Dr. Jayanta Rongpi of the CPI (ML), and Elwin Teron of the ASDC. The most important issue here is a law passed by the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council, which prohibits sale or purchase of land by non-tribals. The BJP has been vocal against the law, as has the CPI (ML). Besides, there are a number of insurgent groups active in the area, and they are yet to show their hand. Much depends on which side of the fence they show their strength.
Prediction: The Congress has a better chance over ASDC and CPI (ML) here.
Dhubri
2004 Anwar
Hussain INC 376588 43.61% Won
Afzalur
Rahman AGP 259966 30.10% Lost
This seat is in lower Assam, spanning the district of Dhubri and part of Goalpara. Both districts are Muslim majority districts, and the Congress has been winning here consecutively in the last three Lok Sabha elections. Both AGP and the BJP have their bases in the constituency, but their presence is not very strong. The Congress margin of victory was more than 1 lakh in two of the three previous elections and never has the combined NDA vote surpassed the Congress vote.
The assembly elections tell an interesting story. The AUDF has risen phenomenally in this constituency, making the contest interesting this time. Of the ten assembly segments in the seat, the AUDF holds three, the Congress two, independents hold two, the NCP, the Loko Sanmilon and the AGP one apiece. The situation here is favourable for the AUDF but the seemingly deliberately mistake by the BJP candidate Nilimoy Pradhani while filing his nomination paper which resulted cancellation of his candidature here where 30 percent of total votes are Hindus created a major concern for the AUDF. If the Congress manages to get majority of Hindu votes then AUDF will be in trouble.
What has turned all the calculations awry here is that Maul. Badruddin Ajmal of the AUDF is contesting from this constituency as well as from Silchar. Here he is widely respected both as a political and religious leader. The Congress has fielded sitting MP Anwar Hussain once more.
Prediction: It is likely that Maul. Badruddin Ajmal will make an impressive entry to the parliament as well as national politics through this one of the remotest Lok Sabha constituencies of the country. But the Congress is very much in the fight and the Hindu votes will be decisive.
Kokrajhar (ST)
2004 Sansuma
Bwiswmuthiary IND 689620 71.32% Won
Sabda
Ram Rabha IND 259966 30.10% Lost
A large constituency in the north west of Assam, it spans all of Kokrajhar district, and parts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. This is the home turf of the independent candidate, Bwiswamuthiary. He has been winning consecutively since the last three elections. Neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much of a chance here. The Congress does not seem in any better situation either. In this election, the Congress has decided not to field anyone from this constituency and is supporting Bwisvamuthiary of the BPF.
The other Bodo party has thrown U G Brahma into the fray, which will lead to a division of the Bodo votes. The question is who will get the Bengali and the Muslim vote? The Muslim vote may go to Mr. Brahma since the AUDF is supporting him, but the Bengali Hindus will likely to vote for Mr. Bwiswamuthiary.
The AGP has fielded the party general secretary Sabda Ram Rabha from this constituency, and despite his promise to get several adivasi groups included as scheduled tribes, he faces an uphill task.
Of the ten assembly segments, eight are held by independents, and one apiece by the CPI (ML) and the AGP.
Prediction: An edge to Mr. Bwiswamuthiary. But Mr. Brahma has also a chance with heavy chunk of Muslim votes. This time Mr. Rabha with AGP- BJP combined strength will also put an impressive fight.
Barpeta
2004 A. F.
Golam Osmani INC 266972 35.00% Won
Kumar
Deepak Das AGP 198847 26.07% Lost
Another constituency in lower Assam, it spans across the three districts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. This is one more constituency where the Muslim factor looms large; though they are a majority only in Barpeta district but in the rest two as well their size is significant. Moreover, in this constituency both the BJP and the AGP have a decent base. In the three previous elections, the Congress has won all the three times, and all times with fairly comfortable margins (the smallest margin is around 70,000). However, the margin of victory has been steadily coming down. Further, the AGP had not contested this seat twice (preferring to leave it to the CPI (M)), and when it did contest, it put up a very impressive performance. The combined NDA vote in the last elections was comfortably larger than the Congress vote.
Of the ten assembly segments in the constituency, the AGP holds five, the Congress four and an independent one. The AUDF is an important factor here and in the rural election in 2008 it put up an impressive performance.
The AGP has fielded three-time MLA Bhupen Roy against Ismail Hussain of the Congress. The three time Congress MP late Mr. A. F. Golam Osmani gained public displeasure by ignoring the fate of the riot-hit people and those affected by floods. AUDF candidate Mr. Abdus Samad Ahmad is a popular candidate. Some of the minority votes that came the AGP way in the past will not come to it now because of the alliance with the BJP. If the AUDF manages only the AGP’s minority votes and a half of the Congress ones to it then it has a chance. On the other hand, if it takes only some of the Congress votes, the NDA should win.
Prediction: The AGP has some points in its favour here but the AUDF and the Congress are spoiling for a fight.
Gauhati
2004 Kirip
Chaliha INC 353250 40.06% Won
Bhupen
Hazarika BJP 292099 33.13% Lost
Gauhati is the capital city of Assam and the heart of the state. The constituency covers most of Kamrup, and parts of Nalbari and Goalpara districts. This is a place where all the Congress, the AGP and the BJP have strong bases. The Congress has won the constituency twice and the BJP once. However, it has been the AGP and the BJP ruining each other’s chances when the Congress won in the past. The combined AGP-BJP vote should see it comfortably home as their combined vote share is impressive compared to the Congress votes.
Of the ten assembly segments in the constituency, the AGP controls four, the Congress five and an independent one. While the BJP did not win any assembly seats in the constituency, it has a substantial base all over the constituency. The AUDF has lately nominated Mr. Sonabar Ali who will be an additional factor to the detriment of the Congress along with AGP-BJP combined strength and antagonism between sitting MP Kirip Chaliha and chief minister Mr. Tarun Gogoi as the latter had denied a party ticket to the former.
The BJP has fielded firebrand Bijoya Chakraborty, against Robin Bordoloi of the Congress. While there were some initial hiccups for the BJP candidate, she seems to have put her house in order, more or less, although some AGP members are still grousing against her. But she is sitting pretty in the constituency. The Congress candidate has an uphill task here this time around.
Prediction: Strong advantage for the BJP. Unless they make some big mistake, they should win this seat at the end.
Mangaldoi
2004 Narayan
C. Borkataky BJP 345863 40.74% Won
Madhab
Rajbangshi INC 315997 37.22% Lost
Spread over parts of Nalbari and Kamrup and the entire Darrang district, this is another constituency in the heart of Assam. Of the three previous elections, the Congress has won twice (1998, 1999) and the BJP once (2004). Here also the combined AGP-BJP vote has almost always surpassed the Congress vote. The Congress, the BJP, the AUDF and the AGP all have a strong base in the region. But any two combined together should easily outclass any single of the four. However, the anti-incumbency factor is strong against the BJP and it tried to repair it by replacing the sitting MP by BJP state president Ramen Deka.
The assembly results in the previous elections are a little strange. Of the ten assembly segments, six are held by independents, and two apiece by the Congress and the AGP. The AUDF and the BJP put up a reasonable performance in the area in the last assembly elections, but failed to open their accounts. It is also unlikely that independents will fare equally well in the Lok Sabha elections. The AUDF is a strong factor here; its performance seems to be equally good all over the constituency going by the last rural election.
The Congress has fielded Madhab Rajbonshi once again and the AUDF has fielded its youth leader Badiuj Jamal. The BPF has fielded a candidate as well, and the impact of this candidate is unknown. If he remains in the fight till 23rd April, the poll date, he will eat up some of the Congress votes. While Mr. Deka has been able to garner the support of the AGP, a section of his own party men seem to be against his candidature, and had locked the party office in protest when he came to visit them. The other factor worrying him is the non-performance of his predecessor, Mr. Narayan Barkakaty, who won the seat on a BJP ticket the last time.
Predictions: A toss up. It may go either side, Congress or BJP. AUDF can be a black horse as well, it depends a lot on two major splits of the votes— Bengali Hindus between Congress and BJP and tribal Bodos between Congress and BPF.
Tezpur
2004 Moni
Kumar Subba INC 289847 40.27% Won
Padma
Hazarika AGP 219402 30.48% Lost
Covering the entire district of Sonitpur, and parts of Nagaon and Lakhimpur, this is another constituency in North Central Assam. The Muslim vote is of some significance in the Nagaon district. As in the previous cases, all three parties have a strong presence in the area. The Congress has won all three Lok Sabha elections, but the combined AGP-BJP vote should easily propel it past the Congress.
Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds four, the AGP three, and the BJP two. Add to that, despite disqualification of the AUDF’s Lakshmi Orang, the striped and humiliated girl fighting for tribal rights from election fray for not being of required age she will play spoilsport with her father Deb Orang as an AUDF candidate for the Congress and the latter’s fate may well be sealed.
The AGP has pitted the tea tribe leader, Mr. Joseph Toppo against the Congress candidate, Mani Kumar Subba. Mr. Subba’s controversial nature (he seems to have been born thrice, in three different places and his identity and citizenship have been questioned) may not matter too much to the people of this constituency, but charges of non-performance will definitely hit him pretty hard. Mr. Toppo cannot take things lightly since Mr. Subba is no pushover, but he has some advantages which may enable him to win.
Prediction: An advantage for AGP but Congress may use extra ordinary money power to win the seat.
Nowgong
2004 Rajen
Gohain BJP 342704 43.60% Won
Bisnu
Prasad INC 311292 39.60% Lost
The constituency covers the Marigaon and parts of Nagaon districts. This is another constituency in Central Assam and all the three have strong bases here. Nagaon has a strong presence of Muslims and this is the home constituency of AUDF president Badruddin Ajmal. Of the three previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has won twice, and the Congress once. The combined BJP-AGP vote should outstrip the Congress vote hands down. However, the BJP candidate, Rajen Gohain, has been representing the constituency for ten years so he might face some anti-incumbency factor.
The assembly results present an interesting picture. Of the nine assembly segments, the AUDF and the Congress have three apiece, while the AGP has two and the BJP one. However, in most segments, the combined NDA vote is greater than the vote share of either of the other two competitors.
The twice sitting MP Rajen Gohain is pitted against a relative newcomer, Anil Raja of the Congress. But the fight this time will be mainly between AUDF’s strong candidate Sirajuddin Ajmal and sitting BJP MP, Rajen Gohain.
Prediction: The BJP has an edge. Although the anti-incumbency factor against it exists but AUDF has not much base among emigrant Bengali Hindus. Besides, there is anti-incumbency factor working against some of AUDF sitting MLAs as well. Not a comfortable sail through for any one and even Congress is not at all out of the fight.
Kaliabor
2004 Dip Gogoi INC 301893 39.56% Won
Keshab
Mahanta AGP 234695 30.76% Lost
Covering Golaghat and parts of Jorhat, this is a constituency bordering Nagaland, and the home turf of the chief minister, Tarun Gogoi. The Congress has won all the three previous Lok Sabha elections. In the first two, the margin of victory was greater than the combined votes of the BJP and the AGP, but in 2004 elections, the NDA vote was greater than the Congress vote. Further, the victory margin of the Congress has been steadily declining and the Gogois may find that their home turf is no longer as secure as they thought it might be. This constituency has a reasonable presence of all the three principal participants – the NDA, the Congress and the AUDF.
Of the ten assembly segments, the AGP holds five, the Congress three and the AUDF and an independent one apiece. The Congress vote is surpassed by the NDA vote.
The Congress has fielded the incumbent Mr. Deep Gogoi, against the AGP’s Gunin Hazarika, who is a popular man locally. While making it a triangular contest the AUDF has filed here, Sirajuddin Ajmal who is also standing from Nowgong. He is sure to eat into the Muslim vote of Mr. Deep Gogoi, the brother of the Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi. On the other hand, the consolidation of the NDA vote might just help Mr. Gunin Hazarika sail through. An unlikely chance for Mr. Ajmal will be only when a massive swing of Muslim votes from both Congress and AGP happens and they push the EVMs to support AUDF.
Prediction: A steady advantage for AGP, but as this is the backyard of the chief minister it may not easily wrested. Mr. Deep Gogoi may have some other tricks up his sleeve while wrapping the campaign.
Jorhat
2004 Bijoy
Krishna Handique INC 223624 33.54% Won
Drupad
Borgohain CPI 172332 25.84% Lost
Covering parts of Jorhat and complete Sibsagar districts. This is the constituency from where the present chief minister has been elected, (he represents Titabar). This constituency should witness a close fight. The AUDF is slightly relevant here but CPI does have a base. The AGP-BJP and the Congress have their bases here as well. The Congress has been winning the previous three elections, and the party vote share alone is a little more than the combined votes of the NDA. The Congress might pay for being the incumbent here.
Of the ten assembly segments, the Congress holds seven, the AGP one, the CPI one, and an independent one. In many segments, the fight was directly between the Congress and the AGP, with the BJP being a distant third.
The BJP has fielded tea cell chief, Kamakhya Prasad Tasa from the constituency against sitting MP Bijoy Krishna Handique of Congress. The other candidate of some consequence is Drupad Borgohain of the CPI, who enjoys a strong base in the Sibsagar assembly segment. However, it is not clear if he enjoys similar support elsewhere. On the other hand, Bijoy Krishna Handique is a strong candidate, and may just have enough to win on his own steam, even if he is bearing the brunt of the incumbencies at both centre and state. Nevertheless, Mr. Tasa is no pushover, and the battle will be a close one.
Prediction: An edge for Congress. But it is going to be an intense fight with NDA.
Dibrugarh
2004 Sarbananda
Sonowal AGP 220944 35.00% Won
Kamakhaya
Tasa BJP 202390 32.06% Lost
Covering most of Dibrugarh district and half of Tinsukhia, this is a constituency in upper Assam. The Congress, the AGP and the BJP are strong here. The AUDF has again little presence here. The Congress has won twice, and the AGP once. In the last election, the Congress was pushed to the third place. The combined NDA vote share has almost always surpassed the Congress vote share. However, the only worrisome factor is that the AGP won the seat the last time and they need to take precautions against anti-incumbency working against their candidate.
Of the nine assembly segments in this region, the Congress holds six, the BJP two, and the AGP one.
The AGP has pitted sitting MP Sarbananda Sonowal against Pawan Kumar Ghatowar of the Congress.
Prediction: Strong advantage for AGP.
Lakhimpur
2004 Dr. Arun
Kumar Sarmah AGP 300865 37.61% Won
Ranee
Narah INC 272717 34.09% Lost
This is a constituency spread over five districts of Lakhimpur, Tinsukhia, Jorhat, Dibrugarh and all of Dhemaji. The Congress won here in ‘98 and ‘99, but the seat was snatched from it by the AGP. All three – the AGP, the BJP and the Congress have a good following here. The AUDF has very little presence here. Two anti-incumbencies are at work. The anti-incumbency factor against the state will work against the Congress and the other against the AGP, which had won the seat last time. The combined AGP-BJP vote here is greater than the Congress vote share, even at the peak of the Congress wave in 1998.
Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds six, and independents three. However, the Congress victory is attributable to the BJP and the AGP cutting into each other’s votes. Further, independents do not count in Lok Sabha all that much.
The Congress has fielded former party MP Rani Narah once again, but her own partymen were in open revolt against her, supporting other candidate, Bobeeta Sharma. The AGP has fielded the incumbent MP, Dr. Arun Sarma. While it is too early to write off the Congress, the consolidation of the NDA vote and the internecine warfare inside the Congress may well seal the fate of Rani Narah again for the second time.
Prediction: Clear advantage for NDA.
Final tally: NDA 7 – 9. Congress 3 – 5, AUDF 2 – 4, Others 0 - 2
This election will surly decide future impact of Maulana Badruddin Ajmal-led United Democratic Front in national politics. If it manages to win even a single seat, which is very likely, and causes the defeat of Indian National Congress in 6-8 seats in Assam alone then it will means a heavy blow for Tarun Gogoi-led Congress in Assam and Ajmal is likely to gain an entry into national politics. AUDF has put candidates in West Bengal and Maharashtra as well and some of them will surly put an impact over their opponents.
M. Burhanuddin Qasmi is editor of Eastern Crescent and director of the Mumbai based Markazul Ma'arif Education and Research Centre. He can be contacted at manager@markazulmaarif.org
http://twocircles.net/2009may13/lok_sabha_elections_assam_indepth_ground_assessment.html
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