BY SUNANDA K. DATTA-RAY
It looks as if Israel will again get away. The Palestinians will again be thwarted, which will mean more recruits for Al-Qaeda and intensification of Islamic militancy in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kashmir, Chechnya and in non-Islamic areas where jihadis have struck. The world may have to pay a high price for Israel's recalcitrance
The Moscow metro bombings are a warning of the intensified Islamist terrorist attacks that might be expected partly because of Israel's latest demonstration of rigidity. It bears noting, too, that Israeli forging of British, French and German passports to murder the Hamas leader, Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, in Dubai has incurred greater Western displeasure than the crime itself did. As long as such double standards prevail, Israel knows it can get away with literally and metaphorically murder.
Murder is not only of individuals. It is the murder of the Palestinian dream of a sovereign homeland, small and drained of all resources though it be, in the West Bank and Gaza with its capital in Jerusalem. Above all, it is the murder of the belief that Jews had drawn some worthwhile lessons from their centuries of wandering and terrible suffering at Hitler's hands. All that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu appears to have learnt is that the successful victim emulates his oppressor.
Though now basking in the uncritical support of the US Congress, he must know that Congressional endorsement owes much to the persuasive funding power of American Zionists. The AntiDefamation League of Bnai B'rith constantly lobbies members of both Houses; and Fortune magazine once described the American Israel Public Affairs Committee as Washington's second most influential lobby. But the means probably interest Netanyahu less than the end, and the expectation is that no matter what President Barack Obama might have said at their recent one-on-one meeting in Washington, he will sooner or later quieten down and toe the line like his predecessors.
By all accounts the protracted discussion was a disaster. The usual trimmings of a state visit were cut out. No joint statement was issued. The two leaders were not photographed together, grinning or scowling. Even the public handshake that often goes on and on was omitted. Netanyahu's departure from America's shores was twice postponed, presumably because of hopes that extra time would allow something to be salvaged.
Next came Britain's decision to expel though couched more politely than that the head of the Intelligence services at Israel's embassy in London. This was retaliation for the 12 members of the Israeli hit team that murdered Mahmoud al-Mabhouh using forged (the preferred term is "cloned" because they were copies of genuine originals) British passports. Other Israeli assassins used similarly cloned French and German passports. They were all copied from the genuine passports of travellers at Israel's Ben Gurion airport. "Such misuse of British passports is intolerable" says Mr David Miliband, Britain's Foreign Secretary, warning that any British subject who visits Israel runs the risk of similar abuse. "The fact that this was done by a country which is a friend, with significant diplomatic, cultural, business and personal ties to the UK, only adds insult to injury." The wording of that not particularly harsh censure bears analysis. There is no condemnation of the murder. There is no reference to the heart of the matter Israel's refusal, despite the show of prolonged negotiations, to hand back conquered land that it has occupied for 43 years.
Miliband didn't even denounce the criminal act of forgery. All he asked in anguish was in effect "How can they do this to us?" Presumably, there would have been no cause for surprise or pain if Iran or Zambia or some other unfriendly country had cloned British passports. Presumably, too, there would have been no cause for complaint if Israel had cloned Iranian or Zambian passports.
Indignation arose because Miliband believed Israel had betrayed its special bond with Britain. That is not likely to worry Israel too much. Its operations to rescue Ethiopian Jews, kidnap former Nazis or destroy Iraq's nuclear capability demonstrate indifference to considerations of legality. It is convinced that survival justifies every action and that the European Union is hypocritical.
Also, the Israeli attitude to the surrounding Arabs is condescendingly European. Europe may have treated its Jews like vermin but that does not stop those Jews and their descendants from identifying with Europeans when it comes to Asians and Africans. There must also have been a special satisfaction for Israeli operatives in cloning German passports and masquerading as Germans.
The present controversy centres on Jerusalem. It makes sense for the ancient city, sacred to three of the world's great religions, to be joint capital of Israel and Palestine. But Israel wants all of Jerusalem, which reinforces the suspicion that it does not want an independent Palestine at all.
Even the moderate President Shimon Peres always wrote of a "Palestinian entity", never a "Palestinian state". The most Israel seems willing to concede is something like the "Bantustans" that apartheid South Africa created to cordon off its black population.
That view was further strengthened when Israel announced, while American Vice-President Biden was visiting the country, that it would build 1,600 more homes for Jews in Arab East Jerusalem.
Secretary of State Hilary Clinton called the decision an "insult to the US" that deliberately sabotaged American efforts to restart the stalled peace negotiations. Mrs Clinton had not forgotten that during his previous tenure as prime minister, Netanyahu did everything possible to extend Jewish settlements in the West Bank, consolidate Israel's military control and obstruct the peace process. The question now is not whether Britain is piqued but whether Israel can afford to antagonize the US which is its main diplomatic and financial supporter and arms supplier. Israel would not exist without heavy US backing. But a strategist like Netanyahu also knows that Israel's strongest card is the American Zionist lobby. Going back in history, Fraklin Delano Roosevelt promised King Abdul Aziz of Saudi Arabia an independent Palestinian homeland. But when he died suddenly, the new president, Harry S. Truman, bluntly told State Department officials that he had to answer to hundreds of thousands of people who were anxious for the success of Zionism but did not have hundreds of thousands of Arabs among his constituents.
Netanyahu's far-right ruling coalition would collapse if he yields to American pressure. He might be able to put together another coalition with the centrist Kadina Party, but that would not be to his liking. Moreover, he knows that with the mid-term Congressional elections due in November, Obama might find his hand forced by his Democratic supporters who fear that the powerful Zionist lobby mentioned earlier will finance their Republican opponents.
Netanyahu has an external card too: he can attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The Americans have built up the Iranian bogey and whatever Mr Obama's feelings, he can hardly criticize an attack too much in public.
So it looks as if Israel will again get away with its gamble. The Palestinians will again be thwarted, which will mean more recruits for Al-Qaeda and further intensification of Islamic militancy in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kashmir, Chechnya and in non-Islamic areas (New York, London, Madrid, Moscow) where jihadis have struck. The world may have to pay a high price for Israel's recalcitrance.
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