By Mumtaz Alam Falahi, TwoCircles.net
Barely 72 hours after the Lok Sabha election process ended in Bihar, Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar attended the show of strength rally of NDA-led BJP in Punjab, he shared dais with Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi (whose role in the post-Godhra riots is now being probed) and shook his hands. By doing so Nitish might have surprised the Muslim community in Bihar – many of them might now be feeling cheated – but the intellectual and informed section of the community is not much surprised because for them the fine line between true secular and communal has got blurred over the years.
A section albeit small of the Muslim community has been taking Nitish as a serious secular politician, and he himself has tried, almost successfully, to make the community believe that as CM in the last three and half years he did not succumb to pressure from BJP. And just before the Lok Sabha election process started in the state he stated that he had nothing to do with the agenda of the BJP, he has no need of Narendra Modi for election campaign in Bihar and he is not going to even share dais with the Gujarat CM, known worldwide more for the bloodiest ever 2002 pogrom than anything else. “Not at all. Why should I?” Nitish had told the media on April 7, when asked if he would share a dais with Modi.
During election campaigns also he reiterated his stand. This certainly helped him get some support of the community in the form of votes. It is the very section which now might be feeling cheated because the first public thing Nitish did just after the elections were over in Bihar is to attend the NDA rally and clasp each other’s hands to show they are united.
Are the common Muslims feeling cheated? “Certainly. They will feel bewildered rather cheated,” says Prof. Abuzar Kamaluddin, ex-vice chairman, Bihar Intermediate Education Council. “He (Nitish) expected that he would get support of Muslims in Bihar and thus he declined to share dais with Modi earlier. Now elections are over they have come out in their true colors,” says the eminent educationist of undivided Bihar.
However, he himself is not much surprised over the development. “There is nothing strange in it. There is no commitment on the part of so-called secular parties. When Vajpayee was being made PM these so-called secular parties and leaders were considering Advani as untouchable and now Advani is Prime Minister-in-waiting, the same people are behaving with Modi as untouchable. It is very difficult to say today who is secular and who not. It is just politics of convenience whereby they want to support one who can help them to power,” argues Prof. Kamaluddin.
The majority of the minority community is feeling that these gentlemen have no secular commitment. They change colors as per their convenience. No sensible minority person believes in what they say. Simply they are banking on the fear factor. They are creating some sort of fear in the heart of minority and some sort of protection they want to give to minority. And on that plank they want to get their support. There is no genuine endeavor on part of any segment of the political party to work for minority development and to give them their due share in the political process and decision making process. So we are not surprised by what Nitish and other people like him have shown, he says.
Maulana Anisur Rahman, General Secretary, Imarat Shariah is also not much surprised. “Since Nitish Kumar has been saying that he wants to make Advani PM and after Advani, BJP says, Modi will become PM, so if Nitish is meeting with Modi it means he is endorsing the BJP’s policy. He has made his point clear.”
Are Muslims in Bihar who voted for Nitish Kumar’s JD-U feeling they have been cheated by Nitish? “If some people voted for him thinking he is doing justice with them, they could not read him well. Because he has always said that he is with NDA and wants to make Advani PM. And there is little difference between Advani and Modi. It is an open cheating, not a hidden one,” says the Maulana.
But the question is: “What could have prompted him to share a dais and shake hands with Modi when he had been declining to do so earlier?
“He wants to be assured that his strength in the political parties remains the same after the elections. He is basically looking for the new equation. But as nothing is happening he is playing safe by remaining with the NDA,” says Asif Akhtar, a lecturer in Patna. “As for his sharing dais with Modi, that was the occasion for NDA to show its strength and being part of NDA Nitish was there. But personally he has made it clear at several occasions that he is not going to support Modi as PM,” Akhtar adds.
He echoes Maulana Anisur Rahman on Muslims who supported JD-U now feeling cheated. “It is just foolishness to think that Muslims were not aware about his link with NDA and Modi. If someone voted for his party thinking that he was secular and nothing to do with Modi or NDA, he is foolish.”
http://twocircles.net/2009may11/nitish_modi_close_has_nitish_cheated_muslims_bihar.html
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Lok Sabha elections in Assam: An indepth ground assessment
By M. Burhanuddin Qasmi,
AUDF makes its first foray in the 15th Lok Sabha polls and may possibly shake many big players in the state
The 15th Lok Sabha has a total of 543 parliamentary constituencies with the total registered voters numbering 71,42,60,951 nationwide. The northeastern state Assam has a total of 1,74,94,302 voters in 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2009. In Assam Muslims are 31 per cent of 2,66,55,528, the total population, and they are either in majority or are in significant numbers in at least 9 out of total 14 parliamentary constituencies in the state.
There are three major players in the fray this time – the (BJP + AGP) NDA, the Congress and the AUDF. How the AUDF will perform in its first Lok Sabha polls will determine the fate of the other two in the state.
In the 2006 Assembly election in Assam this author has predicted the outcome of the elections and argued that the AUDF will be an emerging regional political outfit which was proven correct in the following three years. This time around, we are presenting this prediction after a critical analysis of almost all local Bengali and Assamese newspapers and with available statistics from 2006 Assembly and 2008 rural elections. I have been in Assam for last one month (11 April -11 May) and observed election pattern in many parliamentary constituencies.
Here is the analysis of each constituency with Eastern Crescent’s predictions.
Karimganj (SC)
2004 Lalit
Mohan Suklabaidya INC 321059 47.81% Won
Parimal
Sukla Baidya BJP 229111 34.12% Lost
Spread across the districts of Hailakandi and Karimganj in the Barak valley, this is a seat where Muslims are in majority. This constituency usually features a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. Bengali speaking Hindu immigrants from Bangladesh vote for BJP. The AGP has a presence in the region but is not effective.
In the past three elections, the Congress has won all the three times, but the margin has gradually been widened.
In the last assembly elections, of the eight constituencies, the BJP won three, the AUDF two and the Congress two, with the last taken by an independent. But what is curious is that the AUDF ended up taking a large part of the Muslim vote, traditional for the Congress, and the Congress was pushed to third place in four constituencies and fourth place in one. If this happens, then the Congress might be in trouble. Even so, it is important to emphasise that the combined NDA vote and the Congress vote were nearly on par, despite the AUDF taking a large bite out of the Congress vote.
The BJP has fielded a local Sudanshu Das against the sitting MP Lalit Mohan Shuklabaidya of the Congress and Advocate Rajesh Mala of the AUDF. The presence of Mala has made the contest wide open. With the Muslim factor looming large, the BJP’s vote share may remain untouched, but the question is whether the tea workers will vote en masse for Mala. If they do, with the AUDF’s Muslim vote, he may emerge a winner. However, Mr. Shuklabaidya is no greenhorn and he has his own strong base.
Prediction: An edge for the AUDF provided the in-fight among AUDF office bearers in Hailakandi district does not affect voters.
Silchar
2004 Sontosh
Mohan Dev INC 246215 40.48% Won
Kabindra
Purkyastha BJP 224895 36.98% Lost
The second seat in the Barak valley which spans the Cachar district. This is another seat where the fight has been directly between the Congress and the BJP in the past. The BJP has won in1998 (Kabindra Purkayastha) and the Congress twice in 1999 and 2004 (Santosh Mohan Dev). Mr. Dev has been representing the constituency for 10 years, so anti-incumbency might work against him. This was before the appearance of the AUDF which has a sizeable support of the Muslims and tea labourers.
The assembly elections were a close affair. Of the seven assembly segments in the constituency, the Congress represents four, the BJP two and the AUDF one. The total NDA vote is about 15,000 less than the total Congress vote, but direct correlations between the assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections don’t work. The AUDF was a factor of considerable significance in some of the seven assembly segments.
The BJP has fielded Kabindra Purkayastha once more against his old rival, Santosh Mohan Dev of the Congress. Dev’s position has been made extremely difficult by the entry of Maulana Badruddin Ajmal of the AUDF into the fray. Ml Badruddin Ajmal is likely to take a big chunk out of the Muslim vote bank of the Congress, and may leave him high and dry. On the other hand, the chances of Ajmal are also bleak if any major consolidation of the tea workers votes with the Muslims never happens, which is unlikely at least this time. Purkayastha is probably the only one whose vote bank is untouched but being an old candidate he has both advantages and some disadvantages.
Prediction: Advantage for BJP. If Congress retains traditional Hindu votes, AUDF can emerge as winner.
Diphu (ST) (Autonomous District)
2004 Biren
Singh Engti INC 125937 31.38% Won
Elwin
Teron ASDC 101808 25.36% Lost
This constituency spans two large districts (Karbi Anglong, and Diphu), where neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much presence. It has been won twice by Dr. Joyanta Rongpi from the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC), and the CPI (ML). In 2004, it was won by the Congress. Of the five assembly segments, the Congress has four, and the ASDC one.
The Congress has fielded sitting MP Biren Engti against Dr. Jayanta Rongpi of the CPI (ML), and Elwin Teron of the ASDC. The most important issue here is a law passed by the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council, which prohibits sale or purchase of land by non-tribals. The BJP has been vocal against the law, as has the CPI (ML). Besides, there are a number of insurgent groups active in the area, and they are yet to show their hand. Much depends on which side of the fence they show their strength.
Prediction: The Congress has a better chance over ASDC and CPI (ML) here.
Dhubri
2004 Anwar
Hussain INC 376588 43.61% Won
Afzalur
Rahman AGP 259966 30.10% Lost
This seat is in lower Assam, spanning the district of Dhubri and part of Goalpara. Both districts are Muslim majority districts, and the Congress has been winning here consecutively in the last three Lok Sabha elections. Both AGP and the BJP have their bases in the constituency, but their presence is not very strong. The Congress margin of victory was more than 1 lakh in two of the three previous elections and never has the combined NDA vote surpassed the Congress vote.
The assembly elections tell an interesting story. The AUDF has risen phenomenally in this constituency, making the contest interesting this time. Of the ten assembly segments in the seat, the AUDF holds three, the Congress two, independents hold two, the NCP, the Loko Sanmilon and the AGP one apiece. The situation here is favourable for the AUDF but the seemingly deliberately mistake by the BJP candidate Nilimoy Pradhani while filing his nomination paper which resulted cancellation of his candidature here where 30 percent of total votes are Hindus created a major concern for the AUDF. If the Congress manages to get majority of Hindu votes then AUDF will be in trouble.
What has turned all the calculations awry here is that Maul. Badruddin Ajmal of the AUDF is contesting from this constituency as well as from Silchar. Here he is widely respected both as a political and religious leader. The Congress has fielded sitting MP Anwar Hussain once more.
Prediction: It is likely that Maul. Badruddin Ajmal will make an impressive entry to the parliament as well as national politics through this one of the remotest Lok Sabha constituencies of the country. But the Congress is very much in the fight and the Hindu votes will be decisive.
Kokrajhar (ST)
2004 Sansuma
Bwiswmuthiary IND 689620 71.32% Won
Sabda
Ram Rabha IND 259966 30.10% Lost
A large constituency in the north west of Assam, it spans all of Kokrajhar district, and parts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. This is the home turf of the independent candidate, Bwiswamuthiary. He has been winning consecutively since the last three elections. Neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much of a chance here. The Congress does not seem in any better situation either. In this election, the Congress has decided not to field anyone from this constituency and is supporting Bwisvamuthiary of the BPF.
The other Bodo party has thrown U G Brahma into the fray, which will lead to a division of the Bodo votes. The question is who will get the Bengali and the Muslim vote? The Muslim vote may go to Mr. Brahma since the AUDF is supporting him, but the Bengali Hindus will likely to vote for Mr. Bwiswamuthiary.
The AGP has fielded the party general secretary Sabda Ram Rabha from this constituency, and despite his promise to get several adivasi groups included as scheduled tribes, he faces an uphill task.
Of the ten assembly segments, eight are held by independents, and one apiece by the CPI (ML) and the AGP.
Prediction: An edge to Mr. Bwiswamuthiary. But Mr. Brahma has also a chance with heavy chunk of Muslim votes. This time Mr. Rabha with AGP- BJP combined strength will also put an impressive fight.
Barpeta
2004 A. F.
Golam Osmani INC 266972 35.00% Won
Kumar
Deepak Das AGP 198847 26.07% Lost
Another constituency in lower Assam, it spans across the three districts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. This is one more constituency where the Muslim factor looms large; though they are a majority only in Barpeta district but in the rest two as well their size is significant. Moreover, in this constituency both the BJP and the AGP have a decent base. In the three previous elections, the Congress has won all the three times, and all times with fairly comfortable margins (the smallest margin is around 70,000). However, the margin of victory has been steadily coming down. Further, the AGP had not contested this seat twice (preferring to leave it to the CPI (M)), and when it did contest, it put up a very impressive performance. The combined NDA vote in the last elections was comfortably larger than the Congress vote.
Of the ten assembly segments in the constituency, the AGP holds five, the Congress four and an independent one. The AUDF is an important factor here and in the rural election in 2008 it put up an impressive performance.
The AGP has fielded three-time MLA Bhupen Roy against Ismail Hussain of the Congress. The three time Congress MP late Mr. A. F. Golam Osmani gained public displeasure by ignoring the fate of the riot-hit people and those affected by floods. AUDF candidate Mr. Abdus Samad Ahmad is a popular candidate. Some of the minority votes that came the AGP way in the past will not come to it now because of the alliance with the BJP. If the AUDF manages only the AGP’s minority votes and a half of the Congress ones to it then it has a chance. On the other hand, if it takes only some of the Congress votes, the NDA should win.
Prediction: The AGP has some points in its favour here but the AUDF and the Congress are spoiling for a fight.
Gauhati
2004 Kirip
Chaliha INC 353250 40.06% Won
Bhupen
Hazarika BJP 292099 33.13% Lost
Gauhati is the capital city of Assam and the heart of the state. The constituency covers most of Kamrup, and parts of Nalbari and Goalpara districts. This is a place where all the Congress, the AGP and the BJP have strong bases. The Congress has won the constituency twice and the BJP once. However, it has been the AGP and the BJP ruining each other’s chances when the Congress won in the past. The combined AGP-BJP vote should see it comfortably home as their combined vote share is impressive compared to the Congress votes.
Of the ten assembly segments in the constituency, the AGP controls four, the Congress five and an independent one. While the BJP did not win any assembly seats in the constituency, it has a substantial base all over the constituency. The AUDF has lately nominated Mr. Sonabar Ali who will be an additional factor to the detriment of the Congress along with AGP-BJP combined strength and antagonism between sitting MP Kirip Chaliha and chief minister Mr. Tarun Gogoi as the latter had denied a party ticket to the former.
The BJP has fielded firebrand Bijoya Chakraborty, against Robin Bordoloi of the Congress. While there were some initial hiccups for the BJP candidate, she seems to have put her house in order, more or less, although some AGP members are still grousing against her. But she is sitting pretty in the constituency. The Congress candidate has an uphill task here this time around.
Prediction: Strong advantage for the BJP. Unless they make some big mistake, they should win this seat at the end.
Mangaldoi
2004 Narayan
C. Borkataky BJP 345863 40.74% Won
Madhab
Rajbangshi INC 315997 37.22% Lost
Spread over parts of Nalbari and Kamrup and the entire Darrang district, this is another constituency in the heart of Assam. Of the three previous elections, the Congress has won twice (1998, 1999) and the BJP once (2004). Here also the combined AGP-BJP vote has almost always surpassed the Congress vote. The Congress, the BJP, the AUDF and the AGP all have a strong base in the region. But any two combined together should easily outclass any single of the four. However, the anti-incumbency factor is strong against the BJP and it tried to repair it by replacing the sitting MP by BJP state president Ramen Deka.
The assembly results in the previous elections are a little strange. Of the ten assembly segments, six are held by independents, and two apiece by the Congress and the AGP. The AUDF and the BJP put up a reasonable performance in the area in the last assembly elections, but failed to open their accounts. It is also unlikely that independents will fare equally well in the Lok Sabha elections. The AUDF is a strong factor here; its performance seems to be equally good all over the constituency going by the last rural election.
The Congress has fielded Madhab Rajbonshi once again and the AUDF has fielded its youth leader Badiuj Jamal. The BPF has fielded a candidate as well, and the impact of this candidate is unknown. If he remains in the fight till 23rd April, the poll date, he will eat up some of the Congress votes. While Mr. Deka has been able to garner the support of the AGP, a section of his own party men seem to be against his candidature, and had locked the party office in protest when he came to visit them. The other factor worrying him is the non-performance of his predecessor, Mr. Narayan Barkakaty, who won the seat on a BJP ticket the last time.
Predictions: A toss up. It may go either side, Congress or BJP. AUDF can be a black horse as well, it depends a lot on two major splits of the votes— Bengali Hindus between Congress and BJP and tribal Bodos between Congress and BPF.
Tezpur
2004 Moni
Kumar Subba INC 289847 40.27% Won
Padma
Hazarika AGP 219402 30.48% Lost
Covering the entire district of Sonitpur, and parts of Nagaon and Lakhimpur, this is another constituency in North Central Assam. The Muslim vote is of some significance in the Nagaon district. As in the previous cases, all three parties have a strong presence in the area. The Congress has won all three Lok Sabha elections, but the combined AGP-BJP vote should easily propel it past the Congress.
Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds four, the AGP three, and the BJP two. Add to that, despite disqualification of the AUDF’s Lakshmi Orang, the striped and humiliated girl fighting for tribal rights from election fray for not being of required age she will play spoilsport with her father Deb Orang as an AUDF candidate for the Congress and the latter’s fate may well be sealed.
The AGP has pitted the tea tribe leader, Mr. Joseph Toppo against the Congress candidate, Mani Kumar Subba. Mr. Subba’s controversial nature (he seems to have been born thrice, in three different places and his identity and citizenship have been questioned) may not matter too much to the people of this constituency, but charges of non-performance will definitely hit him pretty hard. Mr. Toppo cannot take things lightly since Mr. Subba is no pushover, but he has some advantages which may enable him to win.
Prediction: An advantage for AGP but Congress may use extra ordinary money power to win the seat.
Nowgong
2004 Rajen
Gohain BJP 342704 43.60% Won
Bisnu
Prasad INC 311292 39.60% Lost
The constituency covers the Marigaon and parts of Nagaon districts. This is another constituency in Central Assam and all the three have strong bases here. Nagaon has a strong presence of Muslims and this is the home constituency of AUDF president Badruddin Ajmal. Of the three previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has won twice, and the Congress once. The combined BJP-AGP vote should outstrip the Congress vote hands down. However, the BJP candidate, Rajen Gohain, has been representing the constituency for ten years so he might face some anti-incumbency factor.
The assembly results present an interesting picture. Of the nine assembly segments, the AUDF and the Congress have three apiece, while the AGP has two and the BJP one. However, in most segments, the combined NDA vote is greater than the vote share of either of the other two competitors.
The twice sitting MP Rajen Gohain is pitted against a relative newcomer, Anil Raja of the Congress. But the fight this time will be mainly between AUDF’s strong candidate Sirajuddin Ajmal and sitting BJP MP, Rajen Gohain.
Prediction: The BJP has an edge. Although the anti-incumbency factor against it exists but AUDF has not much base among emigrant Bengali Hindus. Besides, there is anti-incumbency factor working against some of AUDF sitting MLAs as well. Not a comfortable sail through for any one and even Congress is not at all out of the fight.
Kaliabor
2004 Dip Gogoi INC 301893 39.56% Won
Keshab
Mahanta AGP 234695 30.76% Lost
Covering Golaghat and parts of Jorhat, this is a constituency bordering Nagaland, and the home turf of the chief minister, Tarun Gogoi. The Congress has won all the three previous Lok Sabha elections. In the first two, the margin of victory was greater than the combined votes of the BJP and the AGP, but in 2004 elections, the NDA vote was greater than the Congress vote. Further, the victory margin of the Congress has been steadily declining and the Gogois may find that their home turf is no longer as secure as they thought it might be. This constituency has a reasonable presence of all the three principal participants – the NDA, the Congress and the AUDF.
Of the ten assembly segments, the AGP holds five, the Congress three and the AUDF and an independent one apiece. The Congress vote is surpassed by the NDA vote.
The Congress has fielded the incumbent Mr. Deep Gogoi, against the AGP’s Gunin Hazarika, who is a popular man locally. While making it a triangular contest the AUDF has filed here, Sirajuddin Ajmal who is also standing from Nowgong. He is sure to eat into the Muslim vote of Mr. Deep Gogoi, the brother of the Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi. On the other hand, the consolidation of the NDA vote might just help Mr. Gunin Hazarika sail through. An unlikely chance for Mr. Ajmal will be only when a massive swing of Muslim votes from both Congress and AGP happens and they push the EVMs to support AUDF.
Prediction: A steady advantage for AGP, but as this is the backyard of the chief minister it may not easily wrested. Mr. Deep Gogoi may have some other tricks up his sleeve while wrapping the campaign.
Jorhat
2004 Bijoy
Krishna Handique INC 223624 33.54% Won
Drupad
Borgohain CPI 172332 25.84% Lost
Covering parts of Jorhat and complete Sibsagar districts. This is the constituency from where the present chief minister has been elected, (he represents Titabar). This constituency should witness a close fight. The AUDF is slightly relevant here but CPI does have a base. The AGP-BJP and the Congress have their bases here as well. The Congress has been winning the previous three elections, and the party vote share alone is a little more than the combined votes of the NDA. The Congress might pay for being the incumbent here.
Of the ten assembly segments, the Congress holds seven, the AGP one, the CPI one, and an independent one. In many segments, the fight was directly between the Congress and the AGP, with the BJP being a distant third.
The BJP has fielded tea cell chief, Kamakhya Prasad Tasa from the constituency against sitting MP Bijoy Krishna Handique of Congress. The other candidate of some consequence is Drupad Borgohain of the CPI, who enjoys a strong base in the Sibsagar assembly segment. However, it is not clear if he enjoys similar support elsewhere. On the other hand, Bijoy Krishna Handique is a strong candidate, and may just have enough to win on his own steam, even if he is bearing the brunt of the incumbencies at both centre and state. Nevertheless, Mr. Tasa is no pushover, and the battle will be a close one.
Prediction: An edge for Congress. But it is going to be an intense fight with NDA.
Dibrugarh
2004 Sarbananda
Sonowal AGP 220944 35.00% Won
Kamakhaya
Tasa BJP 202390 32.06% Lost
Covering most of Dibrugarh district and half of Tinsukhia, this is a constituency in upper Assam. The Congress, the AGP and the BJP are strong here. The AUDF has again little presence here. The Congress has won twice, and the AGP once. In the last election, the Congress was pushed to the third place. The combined NDA vote share has almost always surpassed the Congress vote share. However, the only worrisome factor is that the AGP won the seat the last time and they need to take precautions against anti-incumbency working against their candidate.
Of the nine assembly segments in this region, the Congress holds six, the BJP two, and the AGP one.
The AGP has pitted sitting MP Sarbananda Sonowal against Pawan Kumar Ghatowar of the Congress.
Prediction: Strong advantage for AGP.
Lakhimpur
2004 Dr. Arun
Kumar Sarmah AGP 300865 37.61% Won
Ranee
Narah INC 272717 34.09% Lost
This is a constituency spread over five districts of Lakhimpur, Tinsukhia, Jorhat, Dibrugarh and all of Dhemaji. The Congress won here in ‘98 and ‘99, but the seat was snatched from it by the AGP. All three – the AGP, the BJP and the Congress have a good following here. The AUDF has very little presence here. Two anti-incumbencies are at work. The anti-incumbency factor against the state will work against the Congress and the other against the AGP, which had won the seat last time. The combined AGP-BJP vote here is greater than the Congress vote share, even at the peak of the Congress wave in 1998.
Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds six, and independents three. However, the Congress victory is attributable to the BJP and the AGP cutting into each other’s votes. Further, independents do not count in Lok Sabha all that much.
The Congress has fielded former party MP Rani Narah once again, but her own partymen were in open revolt against her, supporting other candidate, Bobeeta Sharma. The AGP has fielded the incumbent MP, Dr. Arun Sarma. While it is too early to write off the Congress, the consolidation of the NDA vote and the internecine warfare inside the Congress may well seal the fate of Rani Narah again for the second time.
Prediction: Clear advantage for NDA.
Final tally: NDA 7 – 9. Congress 3 – 5, AUDF 2 – 4, Others 0 - 2
This election will surly decide future impact of Maulana Badruddin Ajmal-led United Democratic Front in national politics. If it manages to win even a single seat, which is very likely, and causes the defeat of Indian National Congress in 6-8 seats in Assam alone then it will means a heavy blow for Tarun Gogoi-led Congress in Assam and Ajmal is likely to gain an entry into national politics. AUDF has put candidates in West Bengal and Maharashtra as well and some of them will surly put an impact over their opponents.
M. Burhanuddin Qasmi is editor of Eastern Crescent and director of the Mumbai based Markazul Ma'arif Education and Research Centre. He can be contacted at manager@markazulmaarif.org
http://twocircles.net/2009may13/lok_sabha_elections_assam_indepth_ground_assessment.html
AUDF makes its first foray in the 15th Lok Sabha polls and may possibly shake many big players in the state
The 15th Lok Sabha has a total of 543 parliamentary constituencies with the total registered voters numbering 71,42,60,951 nationwide. The northeastern state Assam has a total of 1,74,94,302 voters in 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2009. In Assam Muslims are 31 per cent of 2,66,55,528, the total population, and they are either in majority or are in significant numbers in at least 9 out of total 14 parliamentary constituencies in the state.
There are three major players in the fray this time – the (BJP + AGP) NDA, the Congress and the AUDF. How the AUDF will perform in its first Lok Sabha polls will determine the fate of the other two in the state.
In the 2006 Assembly election in Assam this author has predicted the outcome of the elections and argued that the AUDF will be an emerging regional political outfit which was proven correct in the following three years. This time around, we are presenting this prediction after a critical analysis of almost all local Bengali and Assamese newspapers and with available statistics from 2006 Assembly and 2008 rural elections. I have been in Assam for last one month (11 April -11 May) and observed election pattern in many parliamentary constituencies.
Here is the analysis of each constituency with Eastern Crescent’s predictions.
Karimganj (SC)
2004 Lalit
Mohan Suklabaidya INC 321059 47.81% Won
Parimal
Sukla Baidya BJP 229111 34.12% Lost
Spread across the districts of Hailakandi and Karimganj in the Barak valley, this is a seat where Muslims are in majority. This constituency usually features a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. Bengali speaking Hindu immigrants from Bangladesh vote for BJP. The AGP has a presence in the region but is not effective.
In the past three elections, the Congress has won all the three times, but the margin has gradually been widened.
In the last assembly elections, of the eight constituencies, the BJP won three, the AUDF two and the Congress two, with the last taken by an independent. But what is curious is that the AUDF ended up taking a large part of the Muslim vote, traditional for the Congress, and the Congress was pushed to third place in four constituencies and fourth place in one. If this happens, then the Congress might be in trouble. Even so, it is important to emphasise that the combined NDA vote and the Congress vote were nearly on par, despite the AUDF taking a large bite out of the Congress vote.
The BJP has fielded a local Sudanshu Das against the sitting MP Lalit Mohan Shuklabaidya of the Congress and Advocate Rajesh Mala of the AUDF. The presence of Mala has made the contest wide open. With the Muslim factor looming large, the BJP’s vote share may remain untouched, but the question is whether the tea workers will vote en masse for Mala. If they do, with the AUDF’s Muslim vote, he may emerge a winner. However, Mr. Shuklabaidya is no greenhorn and he has his own strong base.
Prediction: An edge for the AUDF provided the in-fight among AUDF office bearers in Hailakandi district does not affect voters.
Silchar
2004 Sontosh
Mohan Dev INC 246215 40.48% Won
Kabindra
Purkyastha BJP 224895 36.98% Lost
The second seat in the Barak valley which spans the Cachar district. This is another seat where the fight has been directly between the Congress and the BJP in the past. The BJP has won in1998 (Kabindra Purkayastha) and the Congress twice in 1999 and 2004 (Santosh Mohan Dev). Mr. Dev has been representing the constituency for 10 years, so anti-incumbency might work against him. This was before the appearance of the AUDF which has a sizeable support of the Muslims and tea labourers.
The assembly elections were a close affair. Of the seven assembly segments in the constituency, the Congress represents four, the BJP two and the AUDF one. The total NDA vote is about 15,000 less than the total Congress vote, but direct correlations between the assembly elections and the Lok Sabha elections don’t work. The AUDF was a factor of considerable significance in some of the seven assembly segments.
The BJP has fielded Kabindra Purkayastha once more against his old rival, Santosh Mohan Dev of the Congress. Dev’s position has been made extremely difficult by the entry of Maulana Badruddin Ajmal of the AUDF into the fray. Ml Badruddin Ajmal is likely to take a big chunk out of the Muslim vote bank of the Congress, and may leave him high and dry. On the other hand, the chances of Ajmal are also bleak if any major consolidation of the tea workers votes with the Muslims never happens, which is unlikely at least this time. Purkayastha is probably the only one whose vote bank is untouched but being an old candidate he has both advantages and some disadvantages.
Prediction: Advantage for BJP. If Congress retains traditional Hindu votes, AUDF can emerge as winner.
Diphu (ST) (Autonomous District)
2004 Biren
Singh Engti INC 125937 31.38% Won
Elwin
Teron ASDC 101808 25.36% Lost
This constituency spans two large districts (Karbi Anglong, and Diphu), where neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much presence. It has been won twice by Dr. Joyanta Rongpi from the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC), and the CPI (ML). In 2004, it was won by the Congress. Of the five assembly segments, the Congress has four, and the ASDC one.
The Congress has fielded sitting MP Biren Engti against Dr. Jayanta Rongpi of the CPI (ML), and Elwin Teron of the ASDC. The most important issue here is a law passed by the Karbi Anglong Autonomous Council, which prohibits sale or purchase of land by non-tribals. The BJP has been vocal against the law, as has the CPI (ML). Besides, there are a number of insurgent groups active in the area, and they are yet to show their hand. Much depends on which side of the fence they show their strength.
Prediction: The Congress has a better chance over ASDC and CPI (ML) here.
Dhubri
2004 Anwar
Hussain INC 376588 43.61% Won
Afzalur
Rahman AGP 259966 30.10% Lost
This seat is in lower Assam, spanning the district of Dhubri and part of Goalpara. Both districts are Muslim majority districts, and the Congress has been winning here consecutively in the last three Lok Sabha elections. Both AGP and the BJP have their bases in the constituency, but their presence is not very strong. The Congress margin of victory was more than 1 lakh in two of the three previous elections and never has the combined NDA vote surpassed the Congress vote.
The assembly elections tell an interesting story. The AUDF has risen phenomenally in this constituency, making the contest interesting this time. Of the ten assembly segments in the seat, the AUDF holds three, the Congress two, independents hold two, the NCP, the Loko Sanmilon and the AGP one apiece. The situation here is favourable for the AUDF but the seemingly deliberately mistake by the BJP candidate Nilimoy Pradhani while filing his nomination paper which resulted cancellation of his candidature here where 30 percent of total votes are Hindus created a major concern for the AUDF. If the Congress manages to get majority of Hindu votes then AUDF will be in trouble.
What has turned all the calculations awry here is that Maul. Badruddin Ajmal of the AUDF is contesting from this constituency as well as from Silchar. Here he is widely respected both as a political and religious leader. The Congress has fielded sitting MP Anwar Hussain once more.
Prediction: It is likely that Maul. Badruddin Ajmal will make an impressive entry to the parliament as well as national politics through this one of the remotest Lok Sabha constituencies of the country. But the Congress is very much in the fight and the Hindu votes will be decisive.
Kokrajhar (ST)
2004 Sansuma
Bwiswmuthiary IND 689620 71.32% Won
Sabda
Ram Rabha IND 259966 30.10% Lost
A large constituency in the north west of Assam, it spans all of Kokrajhar district, and parts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. This is the home turf of the independent candidate, Bwiswamuthiary. He has been winning consecutively since the last three elections. Neither the BJP, nor the AGP have much of a chance here. The Congress does not seem in any better situation either. In this election, the Congress has decided not to field anyone from this constituency and is supporting Bwisvamuthiary of the BPF.
The other Bodo party has thrown U G Brahma into the fray, which will lead to a division of the Bodo votes. The question is who will get the Bengali and the Muslim vote? The Muslim vote may go to Mr. Brahma since the AUDF is supporting him, but the Bengali Hindus will likely to vote for Mr. Bwiswamuthiary.
The AGP has fielded the party general secretary Sabda Ram Rabha from this constituency, and despite his promise to get several adivasi groups included as scheduled tribes, he faces an uphill task.
Of the ten assembly segments, eight are held by independents, and one apiece by the CPI (ML) and the AGP.
Prediction: An edge to Mr. Bwiswamuthiary. But Mr. Brahma has also a chance with heavy chunk of Muslim votes. This time Mr. Rabha with AGP- BJP combined strength will also put an impressive fight.
Barpeta
2004 A. F.
Golam Osmani INC 266972 35.00% Won
Kumar
Deepak Das AGP 198847 26.07% Lost
Another constituency in lower Assam, it spans across the three districts of Barpeta, Nalbari and Bongaigaon. This is one more constituency where the Muslim factor looms large; though they are a majority only in Barpeta district but in the rest two as well their size is significant. Moreover, in this constituency both the BJP and the AGP have a decent base. In the three previous elections, the Congress has won all the three times, and all times with fairly comfortable margins (the smallest margin is around 70,000). However, the margin of victory has been steadily coming down. Further, the AGP had not contested this seat twice (preferring to leave it to the CPI (M)), and when it did contest, it put up a very impressive performance. The combined NDA vote in the last elections was comfortably larger than the Congress vote.
Of the ten assembly segments in the constituency, the AGP holds five, the Congress four and an independent one. The AUDF is an important factor here and in the rural election in 2008 it put up an impressive performance.
The AGP has fielded three-time MLA Bhupen Roy against Ismail Hussain of the Congress. The three time Congress MP late Mr. A. F. Golam Osmani gained public displeasure by ignoring the fate of the riot-hit people and those affected by floods. AUDF candidate Mr. Abdus Samad Ahmad is a popular candidate. Some of the minority votes that came the AGP way in the past will not come to it now because of the alliance with the BJP. If the AUDF manages only the AGP’s minority votes and a half of the Congress ones to it then it has a chance. On the other hand, if it takes only some of the Congress votes, the NDA should win.
Prediction: The AGP has some points in its favour here but the AUDF and the Congress are spoiling for a fight.
Gauhati
2004 Kirip
Chaliha INC 353250 40.06% Won
Bhupen
Hazarika BJP 292099 33.13% Lost
Gauhati is the capital city of Assam and the heart of the state. The constituency covers most of Kamrup, and parts of Nalbari and Goalpara districts. This is a place where all the Congress, the AGP and the BJP have strong bases. The Congress has won the constituency twice and the BJP once. However, it has been the AGP and the BJP ruining each other’s chances when the Congress won in the past. The combined AGP-BJP vote should see it comfortably home as their combined vote share is impressive compared to the Congress votes.
Of the ten assembly segments in the constituency, the AGP controls four, the Congress five and an independent one. While the BJP did not win any assembly seats in the constituency, it has a substantial base all over the constituency. The AUDF has lately nominated Mr. Sonabar Ali who will be an additional factor to the detriment of the Congress along with AGP-BJP combined strength and antagonism between sitting MP Kirip Chaliha and chief minister Mr. Tarun Gogoi as the latter had denied a party ticket to the former.
The BJP has fielded firebrand Bijoya Chakraborty, against Robin Bordoloi of the Congress. While there were some initial hiccups for the BJP candidate, she seems to have put her house in order, more or less, although some AGP members are still grousing against her. But she is sitting pretty in the constituency. The Congress candidate has an uphill task here this time around.
Prediction: Strong advantage for the BJP. Unless they make some big mistake, they should win this seat at the end.
Mangaldoi
2004 Narayan
C. Borkataky BJP 345863 40.74% Won
Madhab
Rajbangshi INC 315997 37.22% Lost
Spread over parts of Nalbari and Kamrup and the entire Darrang district, this is another constituency in the heart of Assam. Of the three previous elections, the Congress has won twice (1998, 1999) and the BJP once (2004). Here also the combined AGP-BJP vote has almost always surpassed the Congress vote. The Congress, the BJP, the AUDF and the AGP all have a strong base in the region. But any two combined together should easily outclass any single of the four. However, the anti-incumbency factor is strong against the BJP and it tried to repair it by replacing the sitting MP by BJP state president Ramen Deka.
The assembly results in the previous elections are a little strange. Of the ten assembly segments, six are held by independents, and two apiece by the Congress and the AGP. The AUDF and the BJP put up a reasonable performance in the area in the last assembly elections, but failed to open their accounts. It is also unlikely that independents will fare equally well in the Lok Sabha elections. The AUDF is a strong factor here; its performance seems to be equally good all over the constituency going by the last rural election.
The Congress has fielded Madhab Rajbonshi once again and the AUDF has fielded its youth leader Badiuj Jamal. The BPF has fielded a candidate as well, and the impact of this candidate is unknown. If he remains in the fight till 23rd April, the poll date, he will eat up some of the Congress votes. While Mr. Deka has been able to garner the support of the AGP, a section of his own party men seem to be against his candidature, and had locked the party office in protest when he came to visit them. The other factor worrying him is the non-performance of his predecessor, Mr. Narayan Barkakaty, who won the seat on a BJP ticket the last time.
Predictions: A toss up. It may go either side, Congress or BJP. AUDF can be a black horse as well, it depends a lot on two major splits of the votes— Bengali Hindus between Congress and BJP and tribal Bodos between Congress and BPF.
Tezpur
2004 Moni
Kumar Subba INC 289847 40.27% Won
Padma
Hazarika AGP 219402 30.48% Lost
Covering the entire district of Sonitpur, and parts of Nagaon and Lakhimpur, this is another constituency in North Central Assam. The Muslim vote is of some significance in the Nagaon district. As in the previous cases, all three parties have a strong presence in the area. The Congress has won all three Lok Sabha elections, but the combined AGP-BJP vote should easily propel it past the Congress.
Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds four, the AGP three, and the BJP two. Add to that, despite disqualification of the AUDF’s Lakshmi Orang, the striped and humiliated girl fighting for tribal rights from election fray for not being of required age she will play spoilsport with her father Deb Orang as an AUDF candidate for the Congress and the latter’s fate may well be sealed.
The AGP has pitted the tea tribe leader, Mr. Joseph Toppo against the Congress candidate, Mani Kumar Subba. Mr. Subba’s controversial nature (he seems to have been born thrice, in three different places and his identity and citizenship have been questioned) may not matter too much to the people of this constituency, but charges of non-performance will definitely hit him pretty hard. Mr. Toppo cannot take things lightly since Mr. Subba is no pushover, but he has some advantages which may enable him to win.
Prediction: An advantage for AGP but Congress may use extra ordinary money power to win the seat.
Nowgong
2004 Rajen
Gohain BJP 342704 43.60% Won
Bisnu
Prasad INC 311292 39.60% Lost
The constituency covers the Marigaon and parts of Nagaon districts. This is another constituency in Central Assam and all the three have strong bases here. Nagaon has a strong presence of Muslims and this is the home constituency of AUDF president Badruddin Ajmal. Of the three previous Lok Sabha elections, the BJP has won twice, and the Congress once. The combined BJP-AGP vote should outstrip the Congress vote hands down. However, the BJP candidate, Rajen Gohain, has been representing the constituency for ten years so he might face some anti-incumbency factor.
The assembly results present an interesting picture. Of the nine assembly segments, the AUDF and the Congress have three apiece, while the AGP has two and the BJP one. However, in most segments, the combined NDA vote is greater than the vote share of either of the other two competitors.
The twice sitting MP Rajen Gohain is pitted against a relative newcomer, Anil Raja of the Congress. But the fight this time will be mainly between AUDF’s strong candidate Sirajuddin Ajmal and sitting BJP MP, Rajen Gohain.
Prediction: The BJP has an edge. Although the anti-incumbency factor against it exists but AUDF has not much base among emigrant Bengali Hindus. Besides, there is anti-incumbency factor working against some of AUDF sitting MLAs as well. Not a comfortable sail through for any one and even Congress is not at all out of the fight.
Kaliabor
2004 Dip Gogoi INC 301893 39.56% Won
Keshab
Mahanta AGP 234695 30.76% Lost
Covering Golaghat and parts of Jorhat, this is a constituency bordering Nagaland, and the home turf of the chief minister, Tarun Gogoi. The Congress has won all the three previous Lok Sabha elections. In the first two, the margin of victory was greater than the combined votes of the BJP and the AGP, but in 2004 elections, the NDA vote was greater than the Congress vote. Further, the victory margin of the Congress has been steadily declining and the Gogois may find that their home turf is no longer as secure as they thought it might be. This constituency has a reasonable presence of all the three principal participants – the NDA, the Congress and the AUDF.
Of the ten assembly segments, the AGP holds five, the Congress three and the AUDF and an independent one apiece. The Congress vote is surpassed by the NDA vote.
The Congress has fielded the incumbent Mr. Deep Gogoi, against the AGP’s Gunin Hazarika, who is a popular man locally. While making it a triangular contest the AUDF has filed here, Sirajuddin Ajmal who is also standing from Nowgong. He is sure to eat into the Muslim vote of Mr. Deep Gogoi, the brother of the Chief Minister, Tarun Gogoi. On the other hand, the consolidation of the NDA vote might just help Mr. Gunin Hazarika sail through. An unlikely chance for Mr. Ajmal will be only when a massive swing of Muslim votes from both Congress and AGP happens and they push the EVMs to support AUDF.
Prediction: A steady advantage for AGP, but as this is the backyard of the chief minister it may not easily wrested. Mr. Deep Gogoi may have some other tricks up his sleeve while wrapping the campaign.
Jorhat
2004 Bijoy
Krishna Handique INC 223624 33.54% Won
Drupad
Borgohain CPI 172332 25.84% Lost
Covering parts of Jorhat and complete Sibsagar districts. This is the constituency from where the present chief minister has been elected, (he represents Titabar). This constituency should witness a close fight. The AUDF is slightly relevant here but CPI does have a base. The AGP-BJP and the Congress have their bases here as well. The Congress has been winning the previous three elections, and the party vote share alone is a little more than the combined votes of the NDA. The Congress might pay for being the incumbent here.
Of the ten assembly segments, the Congress holds seven, the AGP one, the CPI one, and an independent one. In many segments, the fight was directly between the Congress and the AGP, with the BJP being a distant third.
The BJP has fielded tea cell chief, Kamakhya Prasad Tasa from the constituency against sitting MP Bijoy Krishna Handique of Congress. The other candidate of some consequence is Drupad Borgohain of the CPI, who enjoys a strong base in the Sibsagar assembly segment. However, it is not clear if he enjoys similar support elsewhere. On the other hand, Bijoy Krishna Handique is a strong candidate, and may just have enough to win on his own steam, even if he is bearing the brunt of the incumbencies at both centre and state. Nevertheless, Mr. Tasa is no pushover, and the battle will be a close one.
Prediction: An edge for Congress. But it is going to be an intense fight with NDA.
Dibrugarh
2004 Sarbananda
Sonowal AGP 220944 35.00% Won
Kamakhaya
Tasa BJP 202390 32.06% Lost
Covering most of Dibrugarh district and half of Tinsukhia, this is a constituency in upper Assam. The Congress, the AGP and the BJP are strong here. The AUDF has again little presence here. The Congress has won twice, and the AGP once. In the last election, the Congress was pushed to the third place. The combined NDA vote share has almost always surpassed the Congress vote share. However, the only worrisome factor is that the AGP won the seat the last time and they need to take precautions against anti-incumbency working against their candidate.
Of the nine assembly segments in this region, the Congress holds six, the BJP two, and the AGP one.
The AGP has pitted sitting MP Sarbananda Sonowal against Pawan Kumar Ghatowar of the Congress.
Prediction: Strong advantage for AGP.
Lakhimpur
2004 Dr. Arun
Kumar Sarmah AGP 300865 37.61% Won
Ranee
Narah INC 272717 34.09% Lost
This is a constituency spread over five districts of Lakhimpur, Tinsukhia, Jorhat, Dibrugarh and all of Dhemaji. The Congress won here in ‘98 and ‘99, but the seat was snatched from it by the AGP. All three – the AGP, the BJP and the Congress have a good following here. The AUDF has very little presence here. Two anti-incumbencies are at work. The anti-incumbency factor against the state will work against the Congress and the other against the AGP, which had won the seat last time. The combined AGP-BJP vote here is greater than the Congress vote share, even at the peak of the Congress wave in 1998.
Of the nine assembly segments, the Congress holds six, and independents three. However, the Congress victory is attributable to the BJP and the AGP cutting into each other’s votes. Further, independents do not count in Lok Sabha all that much.
The Congress has fielded former party MP Rani Narah once again, but her own partymen were in open revolt against her, supporting other candidate, Bobeeta Sharma. The AGP has fielded the incumbent MP, Dr. Arun Sarma. While it is too early to write off the Congress, the consolidation of the NDA vote and the internecine warfare inside the Congress may well seal the fate of Rani Narah again for the second time.
Prediction: Clear advantage for NDA.
Final tally: NDA 7 – 9. Congress 3 – 5, AUDF 2 – 4, Others 0 - 2
This election will surly decide future impact of Maulana Badruddin Ajmal-led United Democratic Front in national politics. If it manages to win even a single seat, which is very likely, and causes the defeat of Indian National Congress in 6-8 seats in Assam alone then it will means a heavy blow for Tarun Gogoi-led Congress in Assam and Ajmal is likely to gain an entry into national politics. AUDF has put candidates in West Bengal and Maharashtra as well and some of them will surly put an impact over their opponents.
M. Burhanuddin Qasmi is editor of Eastern Crescent and director of the Mumbai based Markazul Ma'arif Education and Research Centre. He can be contacted at manager@markazulmaarif.org
http://twocircles.net/2009may13/lok_sabha_elections_assam_indepth_ground_assessment.html
Sunday, May 10, 2009
Tale of two retired IPS officers
By Maxwell Pereira, IANS,
Both retired from the elite Indian Police Service (IPS) - one on superannuation and the other prematurely on own volition. One to settle down in Gujarat and the other in Orissa - states that saw large-scale communal violence this decade. One is now engaged in crusading for human rights to bring justice to victims of carnage; the other allegedly spewing venom and hatred to arouse communal sentiment for political gain and more.
R.B. Sreekumar was additional director general in the Gujarat police heading state intelligence during the 2002 riots. He raised his voice against unconstitutional directives by politicians and seniors asking the police to turn a blind eye at frenzied zealots wreaking revenge on Muslims for the Godhra train killings.
In the aftermath, he gave statements to the National Human Rights Commission, the Election Commission of India and the Nanavati Commission indicting the state government for its role in the riots.
He accused Chief Minister Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of hatching the anti-minority carnage, and the state government of violating basic police regulations by allowing bodies of people killed in the Godhra fire incident of Feb 27, 2002, to be paraded through Ahmedabad - to instigate crowds and provoke them to violence. He was privy to the then police chief's anguish over instructions to "...give a free play to the Hindu ire for next three days".
Sreekumar also accused his colleague, the then police commissioner P.C. Pande, of colluding with the Modi government to delay imposition of curfew - to facilitate the parading of the bodies - and of taking no action to prevent communal riots from erupting, which resulted in nearly 2,000 people being killed.
For his stoic and courageous stand defying the official government line, Sreekumar suffered - he was transferred to positions with no responsibility; and denied due promotion to the rank of full director general of police (DGP).
This did not deter him from fighting to protect law and human rights. He fought his victimisation, and won the legal battle to secure his full rank as DGP after retirement. Settled in Gandhinagar, he strives to work for justice to the victims of the Gujarat genocide. Happy over the judiciary's commitment to ensuring justice, in the recent Supreme Court directive to the Special Investigation Team to inquire into the alleged role of Modi in the post-Godhra carnage - he finds vindication of his own stand, and the country's secular fabric protected.
Ashok Sahu is the other officer - originally of the Assam-Meghalaya cadre of the IPS - who resigned from service to settle down and join the BJP in his native state. Currently reputed to be Hindutva's poster boy in Orissa, he is also president of the Hindu Jagaran Samukhya, an affiliate of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh.
Local cadres are apparently awed by Sahu's claims of having "terrorised ULFA" (the outlawed United Liberation Front of Assom) during his Assam tenure; he is now accused of having found other targets to terrorise in his native Orissa.
The work of Christian missionaries and the impoverished tribal Christians have become his arena to denounce consistently, cultivating for himself the image of a crusader for Hindus. In the August 2008 killing of Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati, Sahu and his colleagues in the Sangh Parivar found an opportunity to target further the Christians in Kandhamal by blaming them for the killings.
There followed then the worst ever carnage on Christians in India - of pogrom proportions like those in Gujarat of 2002. Fanatical mobs ran amok attacking and killing Christians, raping nuns, looting and burning churches, hospitals, orphanages and other institutions run by Christians on the allegation that they were behind Laxmanananda's murder.
With the announcement of elections this year, Sahu became the BJP candidate for the Kandhamal Lok Sabha seat - in a gamble that piggybacking on the emotive issue of Saraswati's killing he would surely win - to become the face of hardline Hindutva in Orissa. Laxmanananda's murder was a handy election issue.
So, despite the arrest of CPI-Maoist leader P. Rama Rao alias Uday and his confession to the killing of Laxmanananda, Sahu continued with his campaign to blame and accuse Christians for it.
Apparently Sahu's popular fa�ade of being above the law by not caring or fearing the law which he had once sworn to protect, couldn't last forever. His hate campaign was eventually taken adverse note of by the election authorities and local administration.
Just before the campaign period was to end Sahu was arrested by the Orissa police for his hate speech made at a rally in Raikia. Sahu was released on bail within three days. Most poll observers believe it was part of Sahu's larger scheme to get arrested and gain electorally as a martyr for the Hindu cause.
Sreekumar and Sahu have their admirers and detractors - both are considered dedicated crusaders committed to their individual cause. Who deserves support - the one with courage and integrity to fight for justice, or the one accused of perpetrating hate and violence in the name of nationalism for political gain? Only time will tell how true or pseudo we people are, and who ultimately wins in this our so-called moralistic, tolerant and constitutionally declared democratic and secular polity.
(10.05.2009 - The author is a former joint commissioner of Delhi Police. He can be reached at mfjpkamath@gmail.com)
Both retired from the elite Indian Police Service (IPS) - one on superannuation and the other prematurely on own volition. One to settle down in Gujarat and the other in Orissa - states that saw large-scale communal violence this decade. One is now engaged in crusading for human rights to bring justice to victims of carnage; the other allegedly spewing venom and hatred to arouse communal sentiment for political gain and more.
R.B. Sreekumar was additional director general in the Gujarat police heading state intelligence during the 2002 riots. He raised his voice against unconstitutional directives by politicians and seniors asking the police to turn a blind eye at frenzied zealots wreaking revenge on Muslims for the Godhra train killings.
In the aftermath, he gave statements to the National Human Rights Commission, the Election Commission of India and the Nanavati Commission indicting the state government for its role in the riots.
He accused Chief Minister Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of hatching the anti-minority carnage, and the state government of violating basic police regulations by allowing bodies of people killed in the Godhra fire incident of Feb 27, 2002, to be paraded through Ahmedabad - to instigate crowds and provoke them to violence. He was privy to the then police chief's anguish over instructions to "...give a free play to the Hindu ire for next three days".
Sreekumar also accused his colleague, the then police commissioner P.C. Pande, of colluding with the Modi government to delay imposition of curfew - to facilitate the parading of the bodies - and of taking no action to prevent communal riots from erupting, which resulted in nearly 2,000 people being killed.
For his stoic and courageous stand defying the official government line, Sreekumar suffered - he was transferred to positions with no responsibility; and denied due promotion to the rank of full director general of police (DGP).
This did not deter him from fighting to protect law and human rights. He fought his victimisation, and won the legal battle to secure his full rank as DGP after retirement. Settled in Gandhinagar, he strives to work for justice to the victims of the Gujarat genocide. Happy over the judiciary's commitment to ensuring justice, in the recent Supreme Court directive to the Special Investigation Team to inquire into the alleged role of Modi in the post-Godhra carnage - he finds vindication of his own stand, and the country's secular fabric protected.
Ashok Sahu is the other officer - originally of the Assam-Meghalaya cadre of the IPS - who resigned from service to settle down and join the BJP in his native state. Currently reputed to be Hindutva's poster boy in Orissa, he is also president of the Hindu Jagaran Samukhya, an affiliate of the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh.
Local cadres are apparently awed by Sahu's claims of having "terrorised ULFA" (the outlawed United Liberation Front of Assom) during his Assam tenure; he is now accused of having found other targets to terrorise in his native Orissa.
The work of Christian missionaries and the impoverished tribal Christians have become his arena to denounce consistently, cultivating for himself the image of a crusader for Hindus. In the August 2008 killing of Swami Laxmanananda Saraswati, Sahu and his colleagues in the Sangh Parivar found an opportunity to target further the Christians in Kandhamal by blaming them for the killings.
There followed then the worst ever carnage on Christians in India - of pogrom proportions like those in Gujarat of 2002. Fanatical mobs ran amok attacking and killing Christians, raping nuns, looting and burning churches, hospitals, orphanages and other institutions run by Christians on the allegation that they were behind Laxmanananda's murder.
With the announcement of elections this year, Sahu became the BJP candidate for the Kandhamal Lok Sabha seat - in a gamble that piggybacking on the emotive issue of Saraswati's killing he would surely win - to become the face of hardline Hindutva in Orissa. Laxmanananda's murder was a handy election issue.
So, despite the arrest of CPI-Maoist leader P. Rama Rao alias Uday and his confession to the killing of Laxmanananda, Sahu continued with his campaign to blame and accuse Christians for it.
Apparently Sahu's popular fa�ade of being above the law by not caring or fearing the law which he had once sworn to protect, couldn't last forever. His hate campaign was eventually taken adverse note of by the election authorities and local administration.
Just before the campaign period was to end Sahu was arrested by the Orissa police for his hate speech made at a rally in Raikia. Sahu was released on bail within three days. Most poll observers believe it was part of Sahu's larger scheme to get arrested and gain electorally as a martyr for the Hindu cause.
Sreekumar and Sahu have their admirers and detractors - both are considered dedicated crusaders committed to their individual cause. Who deserves support - the one with courage and integrity to fight for justice, or the one accused of perpetrating hate and violence in the name of nationalism for political gain? Only time will tell how true or pseudo we people are, and who ultimately wins in this our so-called moralistic, tolerant and constitutionally declared democratic and secular polity.
(10.05.2009 - The author is a former joint commissioner of Delhi Police. He can be reached at mfjpkamath@gmail.com)
Muslims, Christians Denied Al-Quds Shrines
By Khalid Amayreh, IOL Correspondent
OCCUPIED AL-QUDS -- Like most Christians in the occupied West Bank, Fadi Hazboun, who lives in Bethlehem, is denied free access to Christian holy places in Al-Quds (occupied East Jerusalem), such as the Church of the Holy Sepulcher.
Hazboun, 35, says Al-Quds has been effectively off-limit to most Palestinians since the 1993 Oslo Accords.
"It is probably naïve to expect true religious freedom under a sinister military occupation," he contends.
"After all, the occupation and freedom are an oxymoron since the former is meant to hurt, harm, torment, savage and kill."
Last month, during the Easter holiday, Israel denied most Palestinian Christians entry to Al-Quds under the pretext of "security considerations."
Some were reportedly beaten up by Israeli occupation soldiers and policemen.
Elderly Christians who have lived through the British mandate and Jordanian eras say that never before has their freedom to access their holy shrines in Al-Quds been so restricted as is it now under the Israeli occupation
"We lived under Islam for 1400 years and not once did Muslims prevent us from accessing our churches," says Jeryes, 80.
Israel captured and occupied Al-Quds in the six-day 1967 war, then annexed it in a move not recognized by the world community or UN resolutions.
The city is home to some of the holiest Christian worship places including the ancient Jerusalem Church and Greek Orthodox Church.
Al-Quds is also home to Al-Haram Al-Sharif, which includes Islam's third holiest shrine Al-Aqsa Mosque, and represents the heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Palestinians insist the city will be the capital of their future independent state.
Disregard
Muse Darwish, the Muslim director of the Al-Liqa Ecumenical Center for Religious Studies in Bethlehem, accuses Israel of "wanton disregard" for the religious rights of Christians and Muslims alike.
"Imagine I have not been able to reach Al-Quds for a brief prayer at the Aqsa Mosque," he said.
"The last time I could reach Al-Quds was eight years ago. Now, in order to reach Al-Quds you need to obtain a special permit from the Shin Beth," added Darwish, referring to the notorious Israeli domestic intelligence agency.
"But the permit is in the mouth of the lion."
Darwish gainsaid the Israeli security rationale for denying most Palestinians access to their holy places in Al-Quds.
"Israel is occupying Palestinian land and has no right to deny us access to the city, our city, and especially the holy places.
"In my opinion, Israel is trying to implant in the collective Palestinian and Arab consciousness that Al-Quds is a Jewish city and that we can’t reach the city and pray at our holy places unless we are allowed by the Jews."
Judaization
Like Hazboun, Darwish says it is futile to expect religious freedom or any other freedom under the yoke of the Israeli occupation.
"Israel wants to Judaize Al-Quds as much as possible and in order to do that Israel must first obliterate the Arab, Islamic-Christian demographic and cultural identity of the city," he explains.
"Hence, I can say that barring Palestinian Christians and Muslims from entering the city should be viewed in this context."
Since its occupation, Israel has adopted a series of oppressive measures to force the Palestinian inhabitants of Al-Quds out, including systematic demolition of their homes.
"The Jews want to stamp Al-Quds with the Jewish seal without any consideration whatsoever for the rights of Christians and Muslims," fumes Walid Suleiman, a noted Muslim preacher in the West Bank city of Al-Khalil (Hebron).
"That is the crux of the issue."
Suleiman pointed out that when Israel allowed Muslims to reach Al-Haram Al-Sharif as many as half a million Muslim worshipers converged on the city for the Friday prayers, especially during the holy month of Ramadan.
"This created a lot of hatred and nervousness in the hearts of many Jews who began to realize that Al-Quds was also important to Muslims."
He laments that the Israeli occupation regime has succeeded in drastically reducing the number of people allowed into Al-Quds.
"They hope that reduced Muslim presence in Al-Quds, particularly at the Haram, would facilitate Israeli designs to partition the Haram plaza between Jews and Muslims as they had done to the Ibrahimi Mosque in Al-Khalil."
Soon after Baruch Goldstein, a Jewish terrorist serving in the Israeli army, murdered 29 Muslim worshipers at the Ibrahimi Mosque in 1994, Israel partitioned the Mosque between Jewish settlers and Muslims.
Fr. Jamal Khadr, a prominent Catholic leader in the West Bank and Professor of Divinity at Bethlehem University, laments that Christians from around the world are allowed into Al-Quds while Christians who live just outside the holy city are denied the right to visit and pray at its holy places.
"This is more than unfair. It is ugly."
http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1239888778693&pagename=Zone-English-News/NWELayout
OCCUPIED AL-QUDS -- Like most Christians in the occupied West Bank, Fadi Hazboun, who lives in Bethlehem, is denied free access to Christian holy places in Al-Quds (occupied East Jerusalem), such as the Church of the Holy Sepulcher.
Hazboun, 35, says Al-Quds has been effectively off-limit to most Palestinians since the 1993 Oslo Accords.
"It is probably naïve to expect true religious freedom under a sinister military occupation," he contends.
"After all, the occupation and freedom are an oxymoron since the former is meant to hurt, harm, torment, savage and kill."
Last month, during the Easter holiday, Israel denied most Palestinian Christians entry to Al-Quds under the pretext of "security considerations."
Some were reportedly beaten up by Israeli occupation soldiers and policemen.
Elderly Christians who have lived through the British mandate and Jordanian eras say that never before has their freedom to access their holy shrines in Al-Quds been so restricted as is it now under the Israeli occupation
"We lived under Islam for 1400 years and not once did Muslims prevent us from accessing our churches," says Jeryes, 80.
Israel captured and occupied Al-Quds in the six-day 1967 war, then annexed it in a move not recognized by the world community or UN resolutions.
The city is home to some of the holiest Christian worship places including the ancient Jerusalem Church and Greek Orthodox Church.
Al-Quds is also home to Al-Haram Al-Sharif, which includes Islam's third holiest shrine Al-Aqsa Mosque, and represents the heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Palestinians insist the city will be the capital of their future independent state.
Disregard
Muse Darwish, the Muslim director of the Al-Liqa Ecumenical Center for Religious Studies in Bethlehem, accuses Israel of "wanton disregard" for the religious rights of Christians and Muslims alike.
"Imagine I have not been able to reach Al-Quds for a brief prayer at the Aqsa Mosque," he said.
"The last time I could reach Al-Quds was eight years ago. Now, in order to reach Al-Quds you need to obtain a special permit from the Shin Beth," added Darwish, referring to the notorious Israeli domestic intelligence agency.
"But the permit is in the mouth of the lion."
Darwish gainsaid the Israeli security rationale for denying most Palestinians access to their holy places in Al-Quds.
"Israel is occupying Palestinian land and has no right to deny us access to the city, our city, and especially the holy places.
"In my opinion, Israel is trying to implant in the collective Palestinian and Arab consciousness that Al-Quds is a Jewish city and that we can’t reach the city and pray at our holy places unless we are allowed by the Jews."
Judaization
Like Hazboun, Darwish says it is futile to expect religious freedom or any other freedom under the yoke of the Israeli occupation.
"Israel wants to Judaize Al-Quds as much as possible and in order to do that Israel must first obliterate the Arab, Islamic-Christian demographic and cultural identity of the city," he explains.
"Hence, I can say that barring Palestinian Christians and Muslims from entering the city should be viewed in this context."
Since its occupation, Israel has adopted a series of oppressive measures to force the Palestinian inhabitants of Al-Quds out, including systematic demolition of their homes.
"The Jews want to stamp Al-Quds with the Jewish seal without any consideration whatsoever for the rights of Christians and Muslims," fumes Walid Suleiman, a noted Muslim preacher in the West Bank city of Al-Khalil (Hebron).
"That is the crux of the issue."
Suleiman pointed out that when Israel allowed Muslims to reach Al-Haram Al-Sharif as many as half a million Muslim worshipers converged on the city for the Friday prayers, especially during the holy month of Ramadan.
"This created a lot of hatred and nervousness in the hearts of many Jews who began to realize that Al-Quds was also important to Muslims."
He laments that the Israeli occupation regime has succeeded in drastically reducing the number of people allowed into Al-Quds.
"They hope that reduced Muslim presence in Al-Quds, particularly at the Haram, would facilitate Israeli designs to partition the Haram plaza between Jews and Muslims as they had done to the Ibrahimi Mosque in Al-Khalil."
Soon after Baruch Goldstein, a Jewish terrorist serving in the Israeli army, murdered 29 Muslim worshipers at the Ibrahimi Mosque in 1994, Israel partitioned the Mosque between Jewish settlers and Muslims.
Fr. Jamal Khadr, a prominent Catholic leader in the West Bank and Professor of Divinity at Bethlehem University, laments that Christians from around the world are allowed into Al-Quds while Christians who live just outside the holy city are denied the right to visit and pray at its holy places.
"This is more than unfair. It is ugly."
http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1239888778693&pagename=Zone-English-News/NWELayout
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